TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153773
Played Sep 19Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117811911911––
Daniel Tomica
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:13 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tomica to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Daniel Tomica at 59.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 5–8 Daniel Tomica Matyas Navedla has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:13What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tomica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Tomica
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1678 vs Tomica 1826
Tomica
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 20% vs Tomica 100%
Tomica
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 30% vs Tomica 80%
Tomica
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla -2 · Tomica +5
Tomica
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tomica)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomica form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.10 / Tomica 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Tomica)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153773
Navedla2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back25% 37 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 71
Tomica1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 19 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla4wins
AwayTomica6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTomica leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla75%3 of 4
AwayTomica83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla4Tomica6n = 10Tomica took 6 of 10
S2Navedla8Tomica2n = 10Navedla took 8 of 10
S3Navedla4Tomica6n = 10Tomica took 6 of 10
S4Navedla3Tomica6n = 9Tomica took 6 of 9
S5Navedla2Tomica3n = 5Tomica took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaTomicaN − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.939.5+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 773 vs 90 / 18447.5%48.9%367 / 773 vs 90 / 184Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TomicaNavedla 2.10/Tomica 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Tomica · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tomica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 17:03M. Navedla301131151D. Tomica4313118113
LSep 4 · 15:00M. Navedla30711841D. Tomica4111811113
WJul 11 · 13:03M. Navedla46811115113D. Tomica4311781162
LJul 11 · 11:00M. Navedla511111810112D. Tomica51691112133
LJun 7 · 17:00M. Navedla50911911102D. Tomica42111117123
LJun 7 · 16:00M. Navedla49911141142D. Tomica49117164113
WJun 1 · 16:00M. Navedla44118113113D. Tomica3231121152
WMay 26 · 17:00M. Navedla4211119113D. Tomica29671151
LMay 26 · 15:00M. Navedla341111841D. Tomica4313811113
WMay 17 · 15:30M. Navedla331111113D. Tomica228590
M. Navedla10
LSep 19 · 17:00M. Cabis1.7381111123M. Navedla2.001117101LSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163LSep 19 · 14:00M. Cabis1.571111113M. Navedla2.258440WSep 16 · 21:00L. Prikasky2.007790M. Navedla1.731111113LSep 16 · 20:00M. Navedla1.9161171112P. Wawrosz1.80119113113LSep 16 · 19:30M. Vavrecka1.53781211143M. Navedla2.381111105122LSep 16 · 18:00M. Navedla1.671110711112L. Prikasky2.10812113133WSep 14 · 20:58M. Navedla1.73111111113L. Prikasky2.00931361LSep 14 · 20:00M. Navedla2.251213581T. Dousek1.57101511113WSep 14 · 19:30L. Prikasky1.91612451M. Navedla1.80111011113
D. Tomica10
LSep 19 · 17:31D. Tomica1.9011881172J. Pilch1.80511119113WSep 19 · 15:30D. Tomica1.73941111113M. Cabis2.0011116692WSep 19 · 14:30J. Pilch1.73511951D. Tomica2.0011911113WSep 18 · 17:30D. Tomica2.381112119113R. Polasek1.53710131192WSep 18 · 16:30D. Tomica2.38111110113R. Polasek1.53991231WSep 18 · 15:00D. Tomica2.10551111133J. Pilch1.67111197112LSep 18 · 14:00M. Grundel1.571011114113D. Tomica2.2512981162WSep 10 · 17:30L. Velebil1.8071191152D. Tomica1.90119119113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel1.5010880D. Tomica2.501211113LSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil1.8371112113D. Tomica1.831151071
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