TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13148754
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Przybyla
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111210611611––
David Osvald
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Osvald to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Przybyla above · David Osvald below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held David Osvald at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jan Przybyla 6–5 David Osvald David Osvald has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Przybyla beat Osvald 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Osvald
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przybyla 1420 vs Osvald 1454
Osvald
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przybyla 20% vs Osvald 40%
Osvald
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przybyla 20% vs Osvald 40%
Osvald
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Przybyla -2 · Osvald -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Osvald)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osvald form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzybyla 1.83 / Osvald 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Osvald)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13148754
Przybyla1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Osvald1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrzybyla5wins
AwayOsvald5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzybylan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOsvald62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przybyla2Osvald8n = 10Osvald took 8 of 10
S2Przybyla8Osvald2n = 10Przybyla took 8 of 10
S3Przybyla4Osvald6n = 10Osvald took 6 of 10
S4Przybyla5Osvald3n = 8Przybyla took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrzybylaOsvaldP − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.3−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzybylaOsvaldBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 431 vs 91 / 17551.3%52%221 / 431 vs 91 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsvaldPrzybyla 1.83/Osvald 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Osvald · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Osvald won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 20:50J. Przybyla29512661D. Osvald43111011113
WSep 17 · 18:15J. Przybyla3631111113D. Osvald35118971
LAug 12 · 11:15J. Przybyla189540D. Osvald331111113
LJun 24 · 10:45J. Przybyla31511871D. Osvald4111811113
WApr 13 · 08:15J. Przybyla331111113D. Osvald198290
LMar 24 · 09:40J. Przybyla34913571D. Osvald44111111113
WMar 24 · 08:10J. Przybyla3911125113D. Osvald357101171
WFeb 24 · 08:15J. Przybyla4071111113D. Osvald25112751
WFeb 10 · 10:40J. Przybyla541291111113D. Osvald4414115772
LDec 31 · 10:10J. Przybyla49101171472D. Osvald541281112113
J. Przybyla10
LSep 17 · 19:45D. Branny1.831111113J. Przybyla1.836340LSep 17 · 19:15V. Reska1.8011811113J. Przybyla1.91311481WSep 17 · 18:15J. Przybyla2.1031111113D. Osvald1.67118971LSep 10 · 16:40R. Solle1.73115118123J. Przybyla2.00511811102LSep 10 · 16:10J. Przybyla1.739940D. Branny2.001111113WSep 10 · 14:40L. Lasota1.57711101292J. Przybyla2.251151210113LSep 10 · 14:10R. Solle1.9112116113J. Przybyla1.801081181LSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292LSep 7 · 08:10L. Lasota1.5711711113J. Przybyla2.25311691LSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133
D. Osvald10
LSep 17 · 20:15D. Osvald1.67712891V. Reska2.10111011113WSep 17 · 18:45D. Branny1.73111261072D. Osvald2.007101112113LSep 17 · 18:15J. Przybyla2.1031111113D. Osvald1.67118971WSep 8 · 17:00K. Baros1.909720D. Osvald1.801111113LSep 8 · 16:15V. Konvicka1.671081111123D. Osvald2.10121157102LSep 8 · 15:15D. Osvald1.577111051K. Baros2.2511512113WSep 8 · 13:45A. Kanak1.6176100D. Osvald2.201111123WSep 7 · 16:49V. Reska1.536940D. Osvald2.381111113LSep 7 · 15:45D. Osvald1.73111080V. Reska2.001312113LSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113
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