TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148694
Played Sep 18Finished
Anatolii Nazarov
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112611118119––
Evhenii Hrytsenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nazarov to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Nazarov above · Evhenii Hrytsenko below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 69 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Anatolii Nazarov at 67.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nazarov 8–4 Evhenii Hrytsenko Evhenii Hrytsenko has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:40What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Nazarov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Nazarov
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nazarov 1640 vs Hrytsenko 1676
Hrytsenko
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nazarov 20% vs Hrytsenko 40%
Hrytsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nazarov 40% vs Hrytsenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nazarov -3 · Hrytsenko +2
Nazarov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Nazarov) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nazarov form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNazarov 1.40 / Hrytsenko 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Nazarov)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13148694
Nazarov1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 50 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Hrytsenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 79 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back16% 9 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNazarov8wins
AwayHrytsenko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNazarov leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNazarov80%4 of 5
AwayHrytsenko20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nazarov5Hrytsenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Nazarov6Hrytsenko4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S3Nazarov6Hrytsenko4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S4Nazarov7Hrytsenko2n = 9Nazarov took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNazarovHrytsenkoN − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.634.7+4.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNazarovHrytsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 642 vs 317 / 63854.4%49.7%349 / 642 vs 317 / 638Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NazarovNazarov 1.40/Hrytsenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.1%
Nazarov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nazarov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 13:30A. Nazarov45711511113E. Hrytsenko4511811962
WAug 3 · 16:30A. Nazarov331111113E. Hrytsenko174940
WJul 20 · 16:30A. Nazarov4381113113E. Hrytsenko341151171
WJun 1 · 20:50A. Nazarov4012116113E. Hrytsenko341071161
WMay 25 · 20:50A. Nazarov4181111113E. Hrytsenko30118651
LMay 18 · 19:50A. Nazarov371311671E. Hrytsenko46111311113
WMay 5 · 05:50A. Nazarov45391111113E. Hrytsenko4511118962
WMay 4 · 20:50A. Nazarov4011117113E. Hrytsenko26861111
WMay 1 · 12:50A. Nazarov4211611143E. Hrytsenko291115121
LApr 27 · 20:50A. Nazarov30931171E. Hrytsenko4111118113
A. Nazarov10
LSep 18 · 18:00I. Nitchenko3.25991111143A. Nazarov1.33111178122LSep 18 · 17:00A. Nazarov2.20119111072O. Strutinskiy1.61611912113LSep 18 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.8011912682A. Derevianko1.916111011113LSep 18 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.001011781M. Deineha1.7312811113LSep 15 · 11:50A. Nazarov2.10411951O. Strutinskiy1.6711411113WSep 15 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.73111298113A. Derevianko2.00510111192LSep 15 · 08:50A. Nazarov1.5019120O. Zhyrnov2.501111143WSep 15 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.571112113I. Nitchenko2.2581030LSep 15 · 05:50A. Nazarov2.20613117112V. Savoliuk1.611111511133WSep 14 · 18:00A. Nazarov1.801111113M. Mrykh1.918840
E. Hrytsenko10
LSep 18 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.61118111143E. Hrytsenko2.2081113522LSep 18 · 17:30M. Deineha1.441111193E. Hrytsenko2.6399170WSep 18 · 14:00O. Strutinskiy1.44611781E. Hrytsenko2.6311911113WSep 18 · 12:00I. Nitchenko2.00811111762E. Hrytsenko1.73118619113LSep 14 · 19:00A. Derevianko1.6711126123E. Hrytsenko2.1041011101LSep 14 · 17:30E. Hrytsenko2.6312811762O. Strutinskiy1.441011611113LSep 14 · 15:30M. Deineha1.5371111113E. Hrytsenko2.38119691LSep 14 · 13:30A. Nazarov1.36711511113E. Hrytsenko3.0011811962LSep 14 · 12:30M. Mrykh1.6751112123E. Hrytsenko2.1011710101LSep 8 · 11:50A. Derevianko1.731111133E. Hrytsenko2.0065110
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