TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148467
Played Sep 18Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111181161719611
Evhenii Hrytsenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEvhenii Hrytsenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Evhenii Hrytsenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 17-19
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 108 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Evhenii Hrytsenko at 54.0%
108 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 24–28 Evhenii Hrytsenko Ivan Nitchenko has won 24 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hrytsenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-28 in 52
Hrytsenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1609 vs Hrytsenko 1667
Hrytsenko
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 40% vs Hrytsenko 0%
Nitchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 40% vs Hrytsenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko +1 · Hrytsenko -6
Hrytsenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hrytsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrytsenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 2.00 / Hrytsenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hrytsenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13148467
Nitchenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 41 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back15% 5 of 34
Hrytsenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 49 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 34 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko3wins
AwayHrytsenko7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderHrytsenko leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayHrytsenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko3Hrytsenko7n = 10Hrytsenko took 7 of 10
S2Nitchenko5Hrytsenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Nitchenko4Hrytsenko6n = 10Hrytsenko took 6 of 10
S4Nitchenko3Hrytsenko6n = 9Hrytsenko took 6 of 9
S5Nitchenko3Hrytsenko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoHrytsenkoN − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.242.6−3.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoHrytsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 402 vs 318 / 64548.5%49.3%195 / 402 vs 318 / 645Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrytsenkoNitchenko 2.00/Hrytsenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hrytsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hrytsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 09:50I. Nitchenko441111111102E. Hrytsenko52139711123
LSep 4 · 12:50I. Nitchenko26841131E. Hrytsenko4211119113
LAug 21 · 09:20I. Nitchenko28581141E. Hrytsenko3811115113
LAug 11 · 08:50I. Nitchenko3911119172E. Hrytsenko40521111113
WAug 4 · 08:50I. Nitchenko511110811113E. Hrytsenko4191211542
WJul 3 · 12:20I. Nitchenko501211610113E. Hrytsenko42104111252
LMay 26 · 06:50I. Nitchenko2577110E. Hrytsenko351111133
WMay 22 · 06:50I. Nitchenko521011911113E. Hrytsenko4712711982
LMay 19 · 09:20I. Nitchenko33914461E. Hrytsenko45111211113
LMay 5 · 07:50I. Nitchenko44661111102E. Hrytsenko44111146123
I. Nitchenko10
WSep 15 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov2.209101591I. Nitchenko1.61111213113LSep 15 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.506440V. Savoliuk1.501111113LSep 15 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.00115912113I. Nitchenko1.73811111082LSep 15 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.571112113I. Nitchenko2.2581030WSep 15 · 06:20O. Strutinskiy1.739680I. Nitchenko2.001111113LSep 11 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.50711711113I. Nitchenko2.5011411752LSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.83911491O. Strutinskiy1.8311811113LSep 11 · 09:20M. Deineha1.4416413113I. Nitchenko2.6314111161WSep 11 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.50111196162I. Nitchenko1.50851111183WSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113
E. Hrytsenko10
LSep 14 · 19:00A. Derevianko1.6711126123E. Hrytsenko2.1041011101LSep 14 · 17:30E. Hrytsenko2.6312811762O. Strutinskiy1.441011611113LSep 14 · 15:30M. Deineha1.5371111113E. Hrytsenko2.38119691LSep 14 · 13:30A. Nazarov1.36711511113E. Hrytsenko3.0011811962LSep 14 · 12:30M. Mrykh1.6751112123E. Hrytsenko2.1011710101LSep 8 · 11:50A. Derevianko1.731111133E. Hrytsenko2.0065110WSep 8 · 10:50E. Hrytsenko1.73711116113O. Zhyrnov2.0011991192WSep 8 · 09:50E. Hrytsenko1.73139711123I. Nitchenko2.001111111102WSep 8 · 08:20E. Hrytsenko2.501111113M. Mrykh1.506790WSep 8 · 06:20E. Hrytsenko2.63611311113O. Strutinskiy1.4411411772
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