TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131405
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611411411––––
Volodymyr Savoliuk
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Savoliuk to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Volodymyr Savoliuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 47 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Volodymyr Savoliuk at 63.7%
47 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 9–15 Volodymyr Savoliuk Ivan Nitchenko has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Savoliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Savoliuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1592 vs Savoliuk 1729
Savoliuk
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 20% vs Savoliuk 60%
Savoliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 50% vs Savoliuk 70%
Savoliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -2 · Savoliuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Savoliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 2.50 / Savoliuk 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Savoliuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131405
Nitchenko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 40 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 32
Savoliuk1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 120 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it83% 85 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko3wins
AwaySavoliuk7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSavoliuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko50%2 of 4
AwaySavoliuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko4Savoliuk6n = 10Savoliuk took 6 of 10
S2Nitchenko1Savoliuk9n = 10Savoliuk took 9 of 10
S3Nitchenko4Savoliuk6n = 10Savoliuk took 6 of 10
S4Nitchenko3Savoliuk2n = 5Nitchenko took 3 of 5
S5Nitchenko1Savoliuk2n = 3Savoliuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoSavoliukN − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.538.1−8.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoSavoliukBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 401 vs 304 / 53748.4%56.6%194 / 401 vs 304 / 537Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SavoliukNitchenko 2.50/Savoliuk 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Savoliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Savoliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 11:20I. Nitchenko146440V. Savoliuk331111113
LSep 11 · 12:50I. Nitchenko3811411752V. Savoliuk47711711113
WSep 10 · 15:00I. Nitchenko51381511143V. Savoliuk551111138122
LAug 11 · 07:20I. Nitchenko4211119382V. Savoliuk48691111113
LAug 7 · 07:20I. Nitchenko101540V. Savoliuk331111113
LJul 21 · 07:20I. Nitchenko166640V. Savoliuk331111113
LJul 17 · 16:30I. Nitchenko199730V. Savoliuk331111113
WJul 14 · 10:50I. Nitchenko3911611113V. Savoliuk32811671
LJun 23 · 11:20I. Nitchenko246990V. Savoliuk331111113
WJun 16 · 07:50I. Nitchenko4211911113V. Savoliuk34711791
I. Nitchenko10
WSep 15 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov2.209101591I. Nitchenko1.61111213113LSep 15 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.00115912113I. Nitchenko1.73811111082LSep 15 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.571112113I. Nitchenko2.2581030WSep 15 · 06:20O. Strutinskiy1.739680I. Nitchenko2.001111113LSep 11 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.50711711113I. Nitchenko2.5011411752LSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.83911491O. Strutinskiy1.8311811113LSep 11 · 09:20M. Deineha1.4416413113I. Nitchenko2.6314111161WSep 11 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.50111196162I. Nitchenko1.50851111183WSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113WSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890
V. Savoliuk10
WSep 15 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.209680V. Savoliuk1.611111113LSep 15 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy2.75111011113V. Savoliuk1.40612491LSep 15 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov2.7511114113V. Savoliuk1.40471191WSep 15 · 05:50A. Nazarov2.20613117112V. Savoliuk1.611111511133WSep 12 · 12:20V. Savoliuk1.4411411113O. Strutinskiy2.63611631WSep 12 · 10:20A. Zozulia4.007950V. Savoliuk1.221111113LSep 12 · 09:20V. Savoliuk1.40981111132O. Zhyrnov2.75111188153WSep 12 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.106950V. Savoliuk1.671111113WSep 12 · 06:50V. Savoliuk2.1011117123Y. Riadynskyi1.673411101WSep 11 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.50711711113I. Nitchenko2.5011411752
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