TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130824
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611811––––
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Strutinskiy above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Strutinskiy 23–20 Ivan Nitchenko Ivan Nitchenko has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Strutinskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-20 in 43
Strutinskiy
Wrong
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strutinskiy 1667 vs Nitchenko 1621
Strutinskiy
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strutinskiy 80% vs Nitchenko 40%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strutinskiy 50% vs Nitchenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strutinskiy -1 · Nitchenko -3
Nitchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrutinskiy 1.73 / Nitchenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13130824
Strutinskiy1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 149 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it87% 76 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 145
Nitchenko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 40 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrutinskiy5wins
AwayNitchenko5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrutinskiy100%3 of 3
AwayNitchenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strutinskiy3Nitchenko7n = 10Nitchenko took 7 of 10
S2Strutinskiy4Nitchenko6n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S3Strutinskiy6Nitchenko4n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S4Strutinskiy4Nitchenko2n = 6Strutinskiy took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrutinskiyNitchenkoS − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.533.1+0.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrutinskiyNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 807 vs 194 / 39851.3%48.7%414 / 807 vs 194 / 398Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyStrutinskiy 1.73/Nitchenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 06:20O. Strutinskiy239680I. Nitchenko331111113
WSep 11 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy4111811113I. Nitchenko33911491
LSep 10 · 16:30O. Strutinskiy2681170I. Nitchenko351113113
WSep 8 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy4011711113I. Nitchenko32711591
LSep 4 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy196580I. Nitchenko331111113
WAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy4391111123I. Nitchenko331166101
WAug 11 · 05:50O. Strutinskiy3741111113I. Nitchenko27116371
LAug 7 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy4113121241I. Nitchenko50151014113
LAug 4 · 05:50O. Strutinskiy32931191I. Nitchenko3611113113
WJul 21 · 05:50O. Strutinskiy331111113I. Nitchenko196850
O. Strutinskiy10
LSep 14 · 18:30M. Deineha1.6714111111113O. Strutinskiy2.1016134782WSep 14 · 17:30E. Hrytsenko2.6312811762O. Strutinskiy1.441011611113WSep 14 · 16:00M. Mrykh1.831191111102O. Strutinskiy1.83131144123WSep 14 · 14:00A. Derevianko1.91611681O. Strutinskiy1.8011711113WSep 14 · 12:00A. Nazarov2.10121190O. Strutinskiy1.671413113LSep 12 · 12:20V. Savoliuk1.4411411113O. Strutinskiy2.63611631WSep 12 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov3.5091251182O. Strutinskiy1.281110117113LSep 12 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.83911911113O. Strutinskiy1.8311611862LSep 12 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi1.67611119113O. Strutinskiy2.1011961162LSep 12 · 05:50A. Zozulia2.2011118113O. Strutinskiy1.61961181
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 11 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.50711711113I. Nitchenko2.5011411752LSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.83911491O. Strutinskiy1.8311811113LSep 11 · 09:20M. Deineha1.4416413113I. Nitchenko2.6314111161WSep 11 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.50111196162I. Nitchenko1.50851111183WSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113WSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890WSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170WSep 10 · 15:00I. Nitchenko2.63381511143V. Savoliuk1.441111138122LSep 10 · 13:30I. Nitchenko2.108370M. Deineha1.671111113WSep 10 · 12:00I. Nitchenko1.731111113A. Derevianko2.007790
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