TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116831
Played Sep 12Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116911118116
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 15–15 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Strutinskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1641 vs Strutinskiy 1671
Strutinskiy
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 40% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 40% vs Strutinskiy 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -1 · Strutinskiy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrykh form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.83 / Strutinskiy 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116831
Mrykh1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Strutinskiy1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh5wins
AwayStrutinskiy5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh100%4 of 4
AwayStrutinskiy83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh4Strutinskiy6n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S2Mrykh5Strutinskiy5n = 10split evenly
S3Mrykh3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S4Mrykh4Strutinskiy0n = 4Mrykh took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhStrutinskiyM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.833.5−1.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 478 vs 409 / 79845.8%51.3%219 / 478 vs 409 / 798Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyMrykh 1.83/Strutinskiy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 09:50M. Mrykh—611111162O. Strutinskiy—119138113
WSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh—1311113O. Strutinskiy—11840
LSep 8 · 09:20M. Mrykh—5670O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WSep 7 · 19:00M. Mrykh—1211113O. Strutinskiy—10430
WSep 1 · 09:50M. Mrykh—111410113O. Strutinskiy—6121271
WAug 21 · 10:50M. Mrykh—11411113O. Strutinskiy—711671
LAug 20 · 19:00M. Mrykh—33100O. Strutinskiy—1111123
LAug 18 · 09:50M. Mrykh—5880O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WAug 15 · 07:20M. Mrykh—1013611113O. Strutinskiy—121111442
LAug 6 · 17:44M. Mrykh—3570O. Strutinskiy—1111113
M. Mrykh10
LSep 12 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.106950V. Savoliuk1.671111113WSep 12 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.531111113O. Zhyrnov2.389880LSep 11 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0077100V. Savoliuk1.731111123LSep 11 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.80611111162O. Strutinskiy1.91119138113WSep 11 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.251171122M. Deineha1.57911921LSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.7389111172I. Nitchenko2.00111148113LSep 10 · 18:00I. Nitchenko2.201111113M. Mrykh1.618890LSep 10 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.005121051V. Savoliuk1.73111012113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Mrykh2.1011127113A. Derevianko1.676101181WSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840
O. Strutinskiy10
LSep 12 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi1.67611119113O. Strutinskiy2.1011961162LSep 12 · 05:50A. Zozulia2.2011118113O. Strutinskiy1.61961181WSep 11 · 12:20M. Deineha1.67113101162O. Strutinskiy2.10811126113WSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.83911491O. Strutinskiy1.8311811113WSep 11 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.80611111162O. Strutinskiy1.91119138113LSep 11 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.3391111113O. Strutinskiy3.25117911WSep 11 · 05:50A. Derevianko1.8856111182O. Strutinskiy1.82111176113WSep 10 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy1.80111189113A. Derevianko1.9189111182LSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko2.101113113O. Strutinskiy1.6781170LSep 10 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.001311113O. Strutinskiy1.7311840
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