TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148367
Played Sep 18Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9119111171181412
Anatolii Nazarov
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nazarov to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Anatolii Nazarov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 103 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Anatolii Nazarov at 66.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 2–6 Anatolii Nazarov Ivan Nitchenko has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Nazarov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Nazarov
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1630 vs Nazarov 1642
Nazarov
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 60% vs Nazarov 20%
Nitchenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 40% vs Nazarov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko +2 · Nazarov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Nazarov) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nazarov form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 3.25 / Nazarov 1.33
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Nazarov)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13148367
Nitchenko3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 41 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back15% 5 of 34
Nazarov1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 50 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeNitchenko2wins
AwayNazarov6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderNazarov leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNazarov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko2Nazarov6n = 8Nazarov took 6 of 8
S2Nitchenko3Nazarov5n = 8Nazarov took 5 of 8
S3Nitchenko3Nazarov5n = 8Nazarov took 5 of 8
S4Nitchenko2Nazarov3n = 5Nazarov took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricNitchenkoNazarovNitchenko − NazarovBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match31.638.5−6.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoNazarovBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 395 vs 350 / 64448.1%54.4%190 / 395 vs 350 / 644Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NazarovNitchenko 3.25/Nazarov 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.3%
Nazarov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 15 · 07:20I. Nitchenko2181030A. Nazarov341112113
LJul 17 · 13:00I. Nitchenko391113961A. Nazarov4251511113
LMay 5 · 08:50I. Nitchenko621011112192A. Nazarov60126823113
WMay 1 · 07:50I. Nitchenko4011612113A. Nazarov344111091
LMar 19 · 12:10I. Nitchenko177820A. Nazarov331111113
WMar 13 · 07:05I. Nitchenko3851111113A. Nazarov30117751
LMar 7 · 09:35I. Nitchenko23411531A. Nazarov4211911113
LFeb 20 · 14:10I. Nitchenko133370A. Nazarov331111113
I. Nitchenko10
WSep 18 · 16:30I. Nitchenko1.73812114113A. Derevianko2.00111041162WSep 18 · 15:00I. Nitchenko1.83911911113O. Strutinskiy1.8311711792LSep 18 · 13:30I. Nitchenko2.75631191M. Deineha1.4011118113LSep 18 · 12:00I. Nitchenko2.00811111762E. Hrytsenko1.73118619113WSep 15 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov2.209101591I. Nitchenko1.61111213113LSep 15 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.506440V. Savoliuk1.501111113LSep 15 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.00115912113I. Nitchenko1.73811111082LSep 15 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.571112113I. Nitchenko2.2581030WSep 15 · 06:20O. Strutinskiy1.739680I. Nitchenko2.001111113LSep 11 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.50711711113I. Nitchenko2.5011411752
A. Nazarov10
LSep 18 · 17:00A. Nazarov2.20119111072O. Strutinskiy1.61611912113WSep 18 · 16:00A. Nazarov1.4011611113E. Hrytsenko2.75211891LSep 18 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.8011912682A. Derevianko1.916111011113LSep 18 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.001011781M. Deineha1.7312811113LSep 15 · 11:50A. Nazarov2.10411951O. Strutinskiy1.6711411113WSep 15 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.73111298113A. Derevianko2.00510111192LSep 15 · 08:50A. Nazarov1.5019120O. Zhyrnov2.501111143WSep 15 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.571112113I. Nitchenko2.2581030LSep 15 · 05:50A. Nazarov2.20613117112V. Savoliuk1.611111511133WSep 14 · 18:00A. Nazarov1.801111113M. Mrykh1.918840
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