TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148267
Played Sep 18Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911117911117119
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 20–23 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Ivan Nitchenko has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Strutinskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-23 in 43
Strutinskiy
Wrong
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1592 vs Strutinskiy 1678
Strutinskiy
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 20% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 20% vs Strutinskiy 50%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -2 · Strutinskiy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 1.83 / Strutinskiy 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13148267
Nitchenko1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Strutinskiy1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko5wins
AwayStrutinskiy5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayStrutinskiy100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko7Strutinskiy3n = 10Nitchenko took 7 of 10
S2Nitchenko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S3Nitchenko4Strutinskiy6n = 10Strutinskiy took 6 of 10
S4Nitchenko2Strutinskiy4n = 6Strutinskiy took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoStrutinskiyN − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.133.5−0.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 393 vs 414 / 80447.8%51.5%188 / 393 vs 414 / 804Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyNitchenko 1.83/Strutinskiy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 06:20I. Nitchenko331111113O. Strutinskiy239680
LSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko33911491O. Strutinskiy4111811113
WSep 10 · 16:30I. Nitchenko351113113O. Strutinskiy2681170
LSep 8 · 11:20I. Nitchenko32711591O. Strutinskiy4011711113
WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko331111113O. Strutinskiy196580
LAug 21 · 12:50I. Nitchenko331166101O. Strutinskiy4391111123
LAug 11 · 05:50I. Nitchenko27116371O. Strutinskiy3741111113
WAug 7 · 11:20I. Nitchenko50151014113O. Strutinskiy4113121241
WAug 4 · 05:50I. Nitchenko3611113113O. Strutinskiy32931191
LJul 21 · 05:50I. Nitchenko196850O. Strutinskiy331111113
I. Nitchenko10
WSep 18 · 16:30I. Nitchenko1.73812114113A. Derevianko2.00111041162LSep 18 · 13:30I. Nitchenko2.75631191M. Deineha1.4011118113LSep 18 · 12:00I. Nitchenko2.00811111762E. Hrytsenko1.73118619113WSep 15 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov2.209101591I. Nitchenko1.61111213113LSep 15 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.506440V. Savoliuk1.501111113LSep 15 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.00115912113I. Nitchenko1.73811111082LSep 15 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.571112113I. Nitchenko2.2581030WSep 15 · 06:20O. Strutinskiy1.739680I. Nitchenko2.001111113LSep 11 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.50711711113I. Nitchenko2.5011411752LSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.83911491O. Strutinskiy1.8311811113
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 18 · 17:00A. Nazarov2.20119111072O. Strutinskiy1.61611912113LSep 18 · 14:00O. Strutinskiy1.44611781E. Hrytsenko2.6311911113LSep 18 · 13:00A. Derevianko2.00511711113O. Strutinskiy1.7311911942WSep 15 · 11:50A. Nazarov2.10411951O. Strutinskiy1.6711411113WSep 15 · 10:50O. Strutinskiy1.301111113O. Zhyrnov3.409840WSep 15 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy2.75111011113V. Savoliuk1.40612491LSep 15 · 08:20O. Strutinskiy1.8071281172A. Derevianko1.911110116113LSep 15 · 06:20O. Strutinskiy1.739680I. Nitchenko2.001111113LSep 14 · 18:30M. Deineha1.6714111111113O. Strutinskiy2.1016134782WSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.83911491O. Strutinskiy1.8311811113
Upcoming Matches
I. Nitchenko
Nothing scheduled
O. Strutinskiy
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