TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131085
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111210811116711
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Strutinskiy above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Strutinskiy 64–53 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 53 of their 117 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strutinskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-53 in 117
Strutinskiy
Wrong
gap of 11 in 117, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strutinskiy 1667 vs Derevianko 1712
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strutinskiy 60% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strutinskiy 50% vs Derevianko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strutinskiy -2 · Derevianko +3
Derevianko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrutinskiy 1.80 / Derevianko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13131085
Strutinskiy1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 149 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it87% 76 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 145
Derevianko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 127 of 316
Down 0–1, comes back25% 45 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrutinskiy6wins
AwayDerevianko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrutinskiy85.7%6 of 7
AwayDerevianko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strutinskiy7Derevianko3n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S2Strutinskiy4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Strutinskiy3Derevianko7n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S4Strutinskiy2Derevianko4n = 6Derevianko took 4 of 6
S5Strutinskiy4Derevianko1n = 5Strutinskiy took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrutinskiyDereviankoS − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.036.9+0.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrutinskiyDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 807 vs 462 / 97351.3%47.5%414 / 807 vs 462 / 973Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyStrutinskiy 1.80/Derevianko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy50111189113A. Derevianko4789111182
WSep 8 · 07:20O. Strutinskiy49131159113A. Derevianko47117111172
LSep 7 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy2710890A. Derevianko341211113
LSep 4 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy124620A. Derevianko331111113
WSep 3 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy3911611113A. Derevianko33811591
WSep 1 · 07:50O. Strutinskiy40115211113A. Derevianko3971111372
WAug 31 · 13:00O. Strutinskiy47116127113A. Derevianko44911101132
LAug 28 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy511111141232A. Derevianko4327161443
WAug 27 · 12:00O. Strutinskiy331111113A. Derevianko169430
LAug 25 · 12:20O. Strutinskiy228860A. Derevianko331111113
O. Strutinskiy10
LSep 15 · 06:20O. Strutinskiy1.739680I. Nitchenko2.001111113LSep 14 · 18:30M. Deineha1.6714111111113O. Strutinskiy2.1016134782WSep 14 · 17:30E. Hrytsenko2.6312811762O. Strutinskiy1.441011611113WSep 14 · 16:00M. Mrykh1.831191111102O. Strutinskiy1.83131144123WSep 14 · 14:00A. Derevianko1.91611681O. Strutinskiy1.8011711113WSep 14 · 12:00A. Nazarov2.10121190O. Strutinskiy1.671413113LSep 12 · 12:20V. Savoliuk1.4411411113O. Strutinskiy2.63611631WSep 12 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov3.5091251182O. Strutinskiy1.281110117113LSep 12 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.83911911113O. Strutinskiy1.8311611862LSep 12 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi1.67611119113O. Strutinskiy2.1011961162
A. Derevianko10
WSep 14 · 19:00A. Derevianko1.6711126123E. Hrytsenko2.1041011101WSep 14 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.20117991A. Derevianko1.6171111113WSep 14 · 15:00A. Nazarov1.73117381A. Derevianko2.0061111113LSep 14 · 14:00A. Derevianko1.91611681O. Strutinskiy1.8011711113WSep 14 · 13:00M. Deineha1.807111251A. Derevianko1.91111310113LSep 11 · 08:50A. Derevianko2.20111168102V. Savoliuk1.61991111123LSep 11 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.50111196162I. Nitchenko1.50851111183LSep 11 · 05:50A. Derevianko1.8856111182O. Strutinskiy1.82111176113LSep 10 · 18:30O. Strutinskiy1.80111189113A. Derevianko1.9189111182LSep 10 · 17:30M. Deineha1.83391111133A. Derevianko1.83111195112
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