TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148622
Played Sep 18Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611311118911––
Maksym Deineha
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeMaksym Deineha to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Maksym Deineha below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Maksym Deineha at 67.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 0–3 Maksym Deineha Ivan Nitchenko has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Deineha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Deineha
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1600 vs Deineha 1742
Deineha
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 20% vs Deineha 80%
Deineha
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 30% vs Deineha 70%
Deineha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -1 · Deineha +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Deineha) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 2.75 / Deineha 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Deineha)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13148622
Nitchenko2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 41 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back15% 5 of 34
Deineha1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 24 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeNitchenko0wins
AwayDeineha3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDeineha leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko1Deineha2n = 3Deineha took 2 of 3
S2Nitchenko1Deineha2n = 3Deineha took 2 of 3
S3Nitchenko1Deineha2n = 3Deineha took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricNitchenkoDeinehaN − DBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match34.041.3−7.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoDeinehaBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 392 vs 46 / 7648%60.5%188 / 392 vs 46 / 76Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DeinehaNitchenko 2.75/Deineha 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Deineha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Deineha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 11 · 09:20I. Nitchenko4214111161M. Deineha4416413113
LSep 10 · 13:30I. Nitchenko188370M. Deineha331111113
LAug 21 · 07:20I. Nitchenko4211911292M. Deineha47611811113
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 18 · 12:00I. Nitchenko2.00811111762E. Hrytsenko1.73118619113WSep 15 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov2.209101591I. Nitchenko1.61111213113LSep 15 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.506440V. Savoliuk1.501111113LSep 15 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.00115912113I. Nitchenko1.73811111082LSep 15 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.571112113I. Nitchenko2.2581030WSep 15 · 06:20O. Strutinskiy1.739680I. Nitchenko2.001111113LSep 11 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.50711711113I. Nitchenko2.5011411752LSep 11 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.83911491O. Strutinskiy1.8311811113LSep 11 · 09:20M. Deineha1.4416413113I. Nitchenko2.6314111161WSep 11 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.50111196162I. Nitchenko1.50851111183
M. Deineha10
WSep 18 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.001011781M. Deineha1.7312811113WSep 14 · 18:30M. Deineha1.6714111111113O. Strutinskiy2.1016134782LSep 14 · 16:30A. Nazarov2.00511511113M. Deineha1.7311911992WSep 14 · 15:30M. Deineha1.5371111113E. Hrytsenko2.38119691WSep 14 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.10661351M. Deineha1.67111111113LSep 14 · 13:00M. Deineha1.807111251A. Derevianko1.91111310113LSep 11 · 12:20M. Deineha1.67113101162O. Strutinskiy2.10811126113WSep 11 · 09:20M. Deineha1.4416413113I. Nitchenko2.6314111161LSep 11 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.251171122M. Deineha1.57911921WSep 11 · 06:50M. Deineha2.2011118113V. Savoliuk1.61991181
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