TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148714
Played Sep 18Finished
Anatolii Nazarov
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1169111210611811
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nazarov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Nazarov above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Anatolii Nazarov at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nazarov 41–43 Andrii Derevianko Anatolii Nazarov has won 41 of their 84 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nazarov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-43 in 84
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 2 in 84, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nazarov 1648 vs Derevianko 1713
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nazarov 40% vs Derevianko 60%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nazarov 50% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nazarov -2 · Derevianko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevianko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nazarov form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNazarov 1.80 / Derevianko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derevianko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13148714
Nazarov1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 50 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Derevianko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 129 of 320
Down 0–1, comes back24% 45 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNazarov4wins
AwayDerevianko6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNazarov50%3 of 6
AwayDerevianko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nazarov6Derevianko4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S2Nazarov4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Nazarov5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S4Nazarov3Derevianko6n = 9Derevianko took 6 of 9
S5Nazarov3Derevianko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNazarovDereviankoN − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.142.0+1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNazarovDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 641 vs 455 / 95954.5%47.5%349 / 641 vs 455 / 959Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoNazarov 1.80/Derevianko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 10:20A. Nazarov51111298113A. Derevianko46510111192
LSep 14 · 15:00A. Nazarov29117381A. Derevianko3961111113
LSep 1 · 12:50A. Nazarov381311861A. Derevianko4215511113
WAug 3 · 18:30A. Nazarov54159118113A. Derevianko41131131132
LAug 1 · 12:50A. Nazarov391191091A. Derevianko4061112113
WJul 30 · 16:30A. Nazarov341211113A. Derevianko2410680
WJul 27 · 18:30A. Nazarov50891111113A. Derevianko3911115932
LJul 23 · 14:30A. Nazarov4494111282A. Derevianko491111610113
LJul 20 · 14:30A. Nazarov47116811112A. Derevianko51811118133
LJul 13 · 14:30A. Nazarov45101111672A. Derevianko49126911113
A. Nazarov10
LSep 18 · 18:00I. Nitchenko3.25991111143A. Nazarov1.33111178122LSep 18 · 17:00A. Nazarov2.20119111072O. Strutinskiy1.61611912113WSep 18 · 16:00A. Nazarov1.4011611113E. Hrytsenko2.75211891LSep 18 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.001011781M. Deineha1.7312811113LSep 15 · 11:50A. Nazarov2.10411951O. Strutinskiy1.6711411113WSep 15 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.73111298113A. Derevianko2.00510111192LSep 15 · 08:50A. Nazarov1.5019120O. Zhyrnov2.501111143WSep 15 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.571112113I. Nitchenko2.2581030LSep 15 · 05:50A. Nazarov2.20613117112V. Savoliuk1.611111511133WSep 14 · 18:00A. Nazarov1.801111113M. Mrykh1.918840
A. Derevianko10
WSep 18 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.61118111143E. Hrytsenko2.2081113522LSep 18 · 16:30I. Nitchenko1.73812114113A. Derevianko2.00111041162WSep 18 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.00117811123M. Deineha1.73611114102WSep 18 · 13:00A. Derevianko2.00511711113O. Strutinskiy1.7311911942LSep 15 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.209680V. Savoliuk1.611111113LSep 15 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.73111298113A. Derevianko2.00510111192WSep 15 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.00115912113I. Nitchenko1.73811111082WSep 15 · 08:20O. Strutinskiy1.8071281172A. Derevianko1.911110116113WSep 14 · 19:00A. Derevianko1.6711126123E. Hrytsenko2.1041011101WSep 14 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.20117991A. Derevianko1.6171111113
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