TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148370
Played Sep 18Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1167118111141210
Maksym Deineha
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Deineha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Maksym Deineha below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 91 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Maksym Deineha at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 6–3 Maksym Deineha Maksym Deineha has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Deineha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1725 vs Deineha 1769
Deineha
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 60% vs Deineha 80%
Deineha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 70% vs Deineha 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +2 · Deineha +3
Deineha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Deineha)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Deineha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 2.00 / Deineha 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Deineha)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13148370
Derevianko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 129 of 320
Down 0–1, comes back24% 45 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 100
Deineha1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 24 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeDerevianko6wins
AwayDeineha3wins
5 of 9 to a deciderDerevianko leads 6–3, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko75%6 of 8
AwayDeinehan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko8Deineha1n = 9Derevianko took 8 of 9
S2Derevianko4Deineha5n = 9Deineha took 5 of 9
S3Derevianko1Deineha8n = 9Deineha took 8 of 9
S4Derevianko6Deineha2n = 8Derevianko took 6 of 8
S5Derevianko3Deineha2n = 5Derevianko took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricDereviankoDeinehaDerevianko − DeinehaBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set81+7of 9Avg pointsper match43.041.8+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoDeinehaBasisWin rate · lifetime456 / 960 vs 47 / 7747.5%61%456 / 960 vs 47 / 77Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DeinehaDerevianko 2.00/Deineha 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Deineha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 14 · 13:00A. Derevianko45111310113M. Deineha357111251
LSep 10 · 17:30A. Derevianko47111195112M. Deineha47391111133
LSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko4611881362M. Deineha495111111113
WAug 27 · 15:00A. Derevianko43111011113M. Deineha37712991
LAug 24 · 15:30A. Derevianko123450M. Deineha331111113
WAug 21 · 05:50A. Derevianko48111178113M. Deineha4597111172
WAug 20 · 18:30A. Derevianko56169911113M. Deineha49141111672
WAug 14 · 15:00A. Derevianko47118611113M. Deineha4661111992
WAug 10 · 16:30A. Derevianko43111110113M. Deineha35781281
A. Derevianko10
LSep 18 · 16:30I. Nitchenko1.73812114113A. Derevianko2.00111041162WSep 18 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.8011912682A. Derevianko1.916111011113WSep 18 · 13:00A. Derevianko2.00511711113O. Strutinskiy1.7311911942LSep 15 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.209680V. Savoliuk1.611111113LSep 15 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.73111298113A. Derevianko2.00510111192WSep 15 · 09:20A. Derevianko2.00115912113I. Nitchenko1.73811111082WSep 15 · 08:20O. Strutinskiy1.8071281172A. Derevianko1.911110116113WSep 14 · 19:00A. Derevianko1.6711126123E. Hrytsenko2.1041011101WSep 14 · 17:00M. Mrykh2.20117991A. Derevianko1.6171111113WSep 14 · 15:00A. Nazarov1.73117381A. Derevianko2.0061111113
M. Deineha10
WSep 18 · 17:30M. Deineha1.441111193E. Hrytsenko2.6399170WSep 18 · 13:30I. Nitchenko2.75631191M. Deineha1.4011118113WSep 18 · 12:30A. Nazarov2.001011781M. Deineha1.7312811113WSep 14 · 18:30M. Deineha1.6714111111113O. Strutinskiy2.1016134782LSep 14 · 16:30A. Nazarov2.00511511113M. Deineha1.7311911992WSep 14 · 15:30M. Deineha1.5371111113E. Hrytsenko2.38119691WSep 14 · 14:30M. Mrykh2.10661351M. Deineha1.67111111113LSep 14 · 13:00M. Deineha1.807111251A. Derevianko1.91111310113LSep 11 · 12:20M. Deineha1.67113101162O. Strutinskiy2.10811126113WSep 11 · 09:20M. Deineha1.4416413113I. Nitchenko2.6314111161
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