TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13146620
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Koral
Home
1.35
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114117––––
Matyas Kolek
Away
2.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 71.0% is still 71.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Koral to win
71.0%
71.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Koral above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Michal Koral at 71.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Michal Koral 2–0 Matyas Kolek Matyas Kolek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Koral beat Kolek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (68%)
Koral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Koral 1537 vs Kolek 1398
Koral
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koral 80% vs Kolek 60%
Koral
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koral 70% vs Kolek 40%
Koral
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koral +3 · Kolek +2
Koral
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Koral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoral 1.35 / Kolek 2.90
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Koral)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13146620
Koral1.35
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Kolek2.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKoral2wins
AwayKolek0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKoral leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKoralKolekKoral − KolekBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.030.0+14.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoralKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 216 vs 123 / 23851.9%51.7%112 / 216 vs 123 / 238Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralKoral 1.35/Kolek 2.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Koral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 17 · 10:30M. Koral551311119113M. Kolek4015451152
WSep 17 · 07:30M. Koral331111113M. Kolek206860
M. Koral10
WSep 17 · 12:00E. Sionkala2.1071181142M. Koral1.67118117113WSep 17 · 11:00F. Zurek2.206980M. Koral1.611111113WSep 17 · 10:30M. Koral1.401311119113M. Kolek2.7515451152LSep 17 · 09:28M. Koral1.50149119112F. Zurek2.501211511133WSep 17 · 08:00M. Koral1.6111116113F. Zurek2.20971141WSep 17 · 07:30M. Kolek2.506860M. Koral1.501111113WSep 17 · 06:00M. Koral1.671111113P. Varecha2.109390LSep 9 · 21:30M. Koral1.954690M. Blejchar1.751111113WSep 9 · 20:30M. Koral1.4411811113R. Guliak2.63811591LSep 9 · 19:00M. Koral2.00711791M. Blejchar1.7311611113
M. Kolek10
WSep 17 · 12:30F. Zurek1.7369131192M. Kolek2.001111119113WSep 17 · 11:30M. Kolek1.9111118113E. Sionkala1.80991141LSep 17 · 10:30M. Koral1.401311119113M. Kolek2.7515451152LSep 17 · 08:58M. Kolek1.7310114141P. Varecha2.0012411163WSep 17 · 08:30P. Varecha1.6111612101M. Kolek2.2021114123LSep 17 · 07:30M. Kolek2.506860M. Koral1.501111113LSep 17 · 06:30F. Zurek1.61111311113M. Kolek2.20815661LSep 15 · 20:58M. Kolek1.61118111132J. Stach2.20131164113WSep 15 · 20:00M. Kolek1.83121112113J. Stach1.831031471LSep 15 · 19:30J. Peter2.001111113M. Kolek1.735350
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