TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140651
Played Sep 17Finished
Filip Zurek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6119111311119911
Matyas Kolek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Zurek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Zurek above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Filip Zurek at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Filip Zurek 9–9 Matyas Kolek Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Zurek beat Kolek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zurek 1503 vs Kolek 1392
Zurek
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zurek 60% vs Kolek 40%
Zurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zurek 60% vs Kolek 30%
Zurek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zurek -1 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Zurek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZurek 1.73 / Kolek 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Zurek)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140651
Zurek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 79 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it91% 38 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it71% 60 of 84
Kolek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZurek5wins
AwayKolek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZurek57.1%4 of 7
AwayKolek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zurek7Kolek3n = 10Zurek took 7 of 10
S2Zurek5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S3Zurek7Kolek3n = 10Zurek took 7 of 10
S4Zurek2Kolek5n = 7Kolek took 5 of 7
S5Zurek1Kolek3n = 4Kolek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZurekKolekZ − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.2+0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZurekKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 609 vs 122 / 23750.9%51.5%310 / 609 vs 122 / 237Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZurekZurek 1.73/Kolek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Zurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 06:30F. Zurek46111311113M. Kolek35815661
LSep 8 · 13:30F. Zurek4816116872M. Kolek541471111113
LSep 8 · 12:00F. Zurek135440M. Kolek331111113
LSep 6 · 11:30F. Zurek4514611952M. Kolek521211711113
WAug 30 · 09:30F. Zurek331111113M. Kolek196580
LAug 30 · 08:00F. Zurek3910811101M. Kolek3912114123
WAug 29 · 07:00F. Zurek331111113M. Kolek268990
WAug 22 · 06:00F. Zurek44111174113M. Kolek4385111182
LJun 5 · 11:30F. Zurek4411711692M. Kolek43311711113
WApr 19 · 12:00F. Zurek4381212113M. Kolek3811101071
F. Zurek10
WSep 17 · 13:09F. Zurek2.25311911113E. Sionkala1.5511711972LSep 17 · 11:00F. Zurek2.206980M. Koral1.611111113WSep 17 · 10:00E. Sionkala2.38117491F. Zurek1.5391111113WSep 17 · 09:28M. Koral1.50149119112F. Zurek2.501211511133LSep 17 · 08:00M. Koral1.6111116113F. Zurek2.20971141WSep 17 · 07:00P. Varecha2.207540F. Zurek1.611111113WSep 17 · 06:30F. Zurek1.61111311113M. Kolek2.20815661WSep 16 · 08:59I. Taichman2.1011914922F. Zurek1.675111211113WSep 16 · 08:30I. Taichman1.83111090F. Zurek1.831312113LSep 16 · 07:30F. Zurek2.7551270R. Adam1.401114113
M. Kolek10
LSep 17 · 13:30M. Koral1.351111113M. Kolek2.906470WSep 17 · 11:30M. Kolek1.9111118113E. Sionkala1.80991141LSep 17 · 10:30M. Koral1.401311119113M. Kolek2.7515451152LSep 17 · 08:58M. Kolek1.7310114141P. Varecha2.0012411163WSep 17 · 08:30P. Varecha1.6111612101M. Kolek2.2021114123LSep 17 · 07:30M. Kolek2.506860M. Koral1.501111113LSep 17 · 06:30F. Zurek1.61111311113M. Kolek2.20815661LSep 15 · 20:58M. Kolek1.61118111132J. Stach2.20131164113WSep 15 · 20:00M. Kolek1.83121112113J. Stach1.831031471LSep 15 · 19:30J. Peter2.001111113M. Kolek1.735350
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