TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13145383
Played Sep 17Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121144111416––
Pavel Varecha
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Pavel Varecha below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 14-16
Point 82 set 4, 14-16
82 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 3–1 Pavel Varecha Pavel Varecha has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kolek beat Varecha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kolek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecha form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.73 / Varecha 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Kolek)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13145383
Kolek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 46 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it78% 35 of 45
Varecha2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back27% 10 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKolek3wins
AwayVarecha1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKolek leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek2Varecha2n = 4split evenly
S2Kolek2Varecha2n = 4split evenly
S3Kolek3Varecha1n = 4Kolek took 3 of 4
S4Kolek2Varecha2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKolekVarechaK − VBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.840.80.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekVarechaBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 234 vs 107 / 22551.7%47.6%121 / 234 vs 107 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.73/Varecha 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 17 · 08:30M. Kolek3921114123P. Varecha3911612101
WMay 25 · 06:00M. Kolek49119135113P. Varecha48911111162
WMay 22 · 09:28M. Kolek4413911113P. Varecha311111541
LMay 22 · 07:30M. Kolek31614741P. Varecha45111211113
M. Kolek10
WSep 17 · 08:30P. Varecha1.6111612101M. Kolek2.2021114123LSep 17 · 07:30M. Kolek2.506860M. Koral1.501111113LSep 17 · 06:30F. Zurek1.61111311113M. Kolek2.20815661LSep 15 · 20:58M. Kolek1.61118111132J. Stach2.20131164113WSep 15 · 20:00M. Kolek1.83121112113J. Stach1.831031471LSep 15 · 19:30J. Peter2.001111113M. Kolek1.735350LSep 15 · 18:00M. Kolek2.109970M. Jasek1.671111113WSep 8 · 13:30M. Kolek1.831471111113F. Zurek1.8316116872WSep 8 · 12:00M. Kolek2.101111113F. Zurek1.675440LSep 8 · 11:30A. Virag1.6781116113M. Kolek2.101151461
P. Varecha10
LSep 17 · 08:30P. Varecha1.6111612101M. Kolek2.2021114123LSep 17 · 07:00P. Varecha2.207540F. Zurek1.611111113LSep 17 · 06:00M. Koral1.671111113P. Varecha2.109390LSep 14 · 13:30M. Kowolowski1.4311611123P. Varecha2.606114101LSep 14 · 12:30P. Varecha2.3881160M. Kowolowski1.531113113LSep 14 · 11:00P. Varecha2.20115137162J. Stach1.617111111183WSep 14 · 10:00I. Taichman1.8312690P. Varecha1.831411113WSep 12 · 09:05P. Varecha2.3081115113F. Zurek1.551141371LSep 12 · 08:30V. Bosak1.7314711123P. Varecha2.0012118101WSep 12 · 07:30P. Varecha2.251111123I. Taichman1.5789100
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