TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129386
Played Sep 14Finished
Miroslav Kowolowski
Home
1.43
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1166111141210––
Pavel Varecha
Away
2.60
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:01 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Kowolowski to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Kowolowski above · Pavel Varecha below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 71 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Miroslav Kowolowski at 58.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Kowolowski 11–7 Pavel Varecha Pavel Varecha has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kowolowski beat Varecha 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:01What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (65%)
Kowolowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Kowolowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowolowski 1446 vs Varecha 1382
Kowolowski
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowolowski 60% vs Varecha 40%
Kowolowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowolowski 50% vs Varecha 30%
Kowolowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowolowski +3 · Varecha -2
Kowolowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kowolowski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowolowski 1.43 / Varecha 2.60
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Kowolowski)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129386
Kowolowski1.43
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 88 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it68% 55 of 81
Varecha2.60
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 31 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowolowski6wins
AwayVarecha4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKowolowski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowolowski80%4 of 5
AwayVarecha60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowolowski5Varecha5n = 10split evenly
S2Kowolowski5Varecha5n = 10split evenly
S3Kowolowski9Varecha1n = 10Kowolowski took 9 of 10
S4Kowolowski5Varecha2n = 7Kowolowski took 5 of 7
S5Kowolowski2Varecha4n = 6Varecha took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowolowskiVarechaK − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.136.6+4.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowolowskiVarechaBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 273 vs 111 / 22555.7%49.3%152 / 273 vs 111 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowolowskiKowolowski 1.43/Varecha 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Kowolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kowolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 12:30M. Kowolowski351113113P. Varecha2581160
WJul 23 · 09:29M. Kowolowski46671111113P. Varecha4211117492
LJul 23 · 08:30M. Kowolowski4312113982P. Varecha471041111113
WJul 21 · 21:30M. Kowolowski341112113P. Varecha2561090
WJul 21 · 18:00M. Kowolowski43551111113P. Varecha4211118572
LJul 9 · 08:00M. Kowolowski46116111172P. Varecha51131179113
LJun 19 · 06:30M. Kowolowski4597121162P. Varecha481111105113
LJun 4 · 09:00M. Kowolowski4381111672P. Varecha42113611113
WJun 4 · 06:30M. Kowolowski331111113P. Varecha154560
WJun 1 · 09:30M. Kowolowski4311912113P. Varecha296111021
M. Kowolowski10
WSep 14 · 12:30P. Varecha2.3881160M. Kowolowski1.531113113WSep 14 · 11:30M. Kowolowski1.7311911113I. Taichman2.00411891WSep 14 · 10:30J. Stach1.91411171142M. Kowolowski1.801161513113LAug 21 · 13:00R. Adam1.491111113M. Kowolowski2.458340LAug 21 · 12:00M. Kowolowski2.25681161R. Adam1.5711111113WAug 21 · 11:30M. Blejchar2.25271191M. Kowolowski1.5711114113LAug 21 · 10:00M. Kowolowski1.531111701I. Taichman2.3891311113LAug 16 · 20:58I. Taichman3.0013116123M. Kowolowski1.3611611101LAug 16 · 20:30L. Velicka2.001113113M. Kowolowski1.7381170WAug 16 · 19:30M. Kowolowski1.3611611113I. Taichman3.00611581
P. Varecha10
LSep 14 · 12:30P. Varecha2.3881160M. Kowolowski1.531113113LSep 14 · 11:00P. Varecha2.20115137162J. Stach1.617111111183WSep 14 · 10:00I. Taichman1.8312690P. Varecha1.831411113WSep 12 · 09:05P. Varecha2.3081115113F. Zurek1.551141371LSep 12 · 08:30V. Bosak1.7314711123P. Varecha2.0012118101WSep 12 · 07:30P. Varecha2.251111123I. Taichman1.5789100LSep 12 · 06:30F. Zurek1.53911118113P. Varecha2.3811891162LSep 11 · 08:59J. Stach1.61611116113P. Varecha2.2011931182LSep 11 · 08:30P. Varecha2.008141071J. Stach1.73111212113LSep 11 · 07:00P. Varecha2.00117881F. Zurek1.7371111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.