TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13109799
Played Sep 11Finished
Pavel Varecha
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81114121012711––
Jiri Stach
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Stach to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Jiri Stach below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 85 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jiri Stach at 54.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 1–3 Jiri Stach Pavel Varecha has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:56What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Stach
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1396 vs Stach 1344
Varecha
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 20% vs Stach 40%
Stach
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 40% vs Stach 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha -3 · Stach -2
Varecha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stach) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stach form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 2.00 / Stach 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Varecha)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13109799
Varecha2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 30 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Stach1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 37 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVarecha1wins
AwayStach3wins
Stach leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha2Stach2n = 4split evenly
S2Varecha1Stach3n = 4Stach took 3 of 4
S3Varecha2Stach2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricVarechaStachV − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match29.035.2−6.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaStachBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 217 vs 146 / 31750.2%46.1%109 / 217 vs 146 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StachVarecha 2.00/Stach 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 1 · 08:30P. Varecha—114471J. Stach—91111113
LAug 25 · 10:30P. Varecha—91070J. Stach—1112113
WJul 31 · 07:00P. Varecha—1111123J. Stach—58100
LSep 26 · 06:00P. Varecha—781141J. Stach—11119113
P. Varecha10
LSep 11 · 08:59J. Stach1.61611116113P. Varecha2.2011931182LSep 11 · 07:00P. Varecha2.00117881F. Zurek1.7371111113LSep 11 · 06:00I. Taichman1.57881111113P. Varecha2.2511118412LSep 8 · 21:28M. Blejchar1.331311113P. Varecha3.2511350WSep 8 · 20:30P. Varecha1.731311123M. Jasek2.00116100LSep 8 · 19:00P. Varecha2.634460M. Blejchar1.441111113WSep 8 · 18:00V. Bosak1.6111711382P. Varecha2.20711711113LSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113WSep 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.73111011113E. Sionkala2.00512781LSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752
J. Stach10
WSep 11 · 08:59J. Stach1.61611116113P. Varecha2.2011931182LSep 11 · 07:30J. Stach2.63491181I. Taichman1.4411115113LSep 11 · 06:30F. Zurek1.61116137113J. Stach2.20611111182WSep 9 · 09:00J. Stach1.70131212113D. Mikula2.0011101491LSep 9 · 08:00F. Zurek1.831111113J. Stach1.838830WSep 9 · 07:00D. Mikula2.6351111962J. Stach1.44115711113LSep 9 · 06:30J. Stach2.1071150E. Sionkala1.671113113WSep 5 · 20:58M. Jasek1.73881112112J. Stach2.001111810133LSep 5 · 20:30M. Jasek1.911115113J. Stach1.8061370LSep 5 · 19:30J. Stach2.5087110I. Taichman1.501111133
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