TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114716
Played Sep 12Finished
Vitezslav Bosak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14127111181210––
Pavel Varecha
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeVitezslav Bosak to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitezslav Bosak above · Pavel Varecha below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 85 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Vitezslav Bosak at 60.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vitezslav Bosak 4–3 Pavel Varecha Pavel Varecha has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bosak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bosak 1358 vs Varecha 1384
Varecha
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bosak 60% vs Varecha 20%
Bosak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bosak 30% vs Varecha 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bosak +1 · Varecha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Bosak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecha form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBosak 1.73 / Varecha 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Bosak)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114716
Bosak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 79 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it87% 40 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 59 of 76
Varecha2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 30 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBosak4wins
AwayVarecha3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderBosak leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBosak40%2 of 5
AwayVarechan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bosak5Varecha2n = 7Bosak took 5 of 7
S2Bosak3Varecha4n = 7Varecha took 4 of 7
S3Bosak5Varecha2n = 7Bosak took 5 of 7
S4Bosak4Varecha2n = 6Bosak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricBosakVarechaB − VBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match39.435.0+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBosakVarechaBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 363 vs 109 / 22049%49.6%178 / 363 vs 109 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BosakBosak 1.73/Varecha 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Bosak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bosak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 8 · 18:00V. Bosak—11711382P. Varecha—711711113
WAug 29 · 16:59V. Bosak—51111113P. Varecha—115461
LAug 29 · 15:30V. Bosak—11991362P. Varecha—3111111113
LJul 27 · 19:30V. Bosak—1179111P. Varecha—71111133
WApr 27 · 13:00V. Bosak—1111113P. Varecha—9740
WApr 27 · 11:00V. Bosak—81111113P. Varecha—119951
WApr 11 · 07:00V. Bosak—11511113P. Varecha—711741
V. Bosak10
WSep 12 · 07:00V. Bosak1.831211113F. Zurek1.8310960LSep 12 · 06:00I. Taichman1.831111113V. Bosak1.836360WSep 8 · 20:58V. Bosak2.101111113M. Jasek1.673970LSep 8 · 20:00V. Bosak2.754360M. Blejchar1.401111113WSep 8 · 19:30M. Jasek1.44119147152V. Bosak2.639111211173LSep 8 · 18:00V. Bosak1.6111711382P. Varecha2.20711711113LSep 6 · 17:03P. Hanel1.1711811113V. Bosak4.50411651LSep 6 · 16:30P. Hanel1.531111113V. Bosak2.387990LSep 6 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5051080R. Adam1.281112113LSep 6 · 14:30M. Blejchar1.4411119113V. Bosak2.63351181
P. Varecha10
WSep 12 · 07:30P. Varecha2.251111123I. Taichman1.5789100LSep 12 · 06:30F. Zurek1.53911118113P. Varecha2.3811891162LSep 11 · 08:59J. Stach1.61611116113P. Varecha2.2011931182LSep 11 · 08:30P. Varecha2.008141071J. Stach1.73111212113LSep 11 · 07:00P. Varecha2.00117881F. Zurek1.7371111113LSep 11 · 06:00I. Taichman1.57881111113P. Varecha2.2511118412LSep 8 · 21:28M. Blejchar1.331311113P. Varecha3.2511350WSep 8 · 20:30P. Varecha1.731311123M. Jasek2.00116100LSep 8 · 19:00P. Varecha2.634460M. Blejchar1.441111113WSep 8 · 18:00V. Bosak1.6111711382P. Varecha2.20711711113
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