TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125579
Played Sep 14Finished
Pavel Varecha
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111113611––––
Miroslav Kowolowski
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:11 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Kowolowski to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Miroslav Kowolowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 60 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Miroslav Kowolowski at 64.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 7–10 Miroslav Kowolowski Pavel Varecha has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kowolowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Kowolowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1394 vs Kowolowski 1434
Kowolowski
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 60% vs Kowolowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 30% vs Kowolowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha -1 · Kowolowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kowolowski) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varecha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 2.38 / Kowolowski 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kowolowski)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125579
Varecha2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 31 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Kowolowski1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 88 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it68% 55 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarecha5wins
AwayKowolowski5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecha60%3 of 5
AwayKowolowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha5Kowolowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Varecha6Kowolowski4n = 10Varecha took 6 of 10
S3Varecha2Kowolowski8n = 10Kowolowski took 8 of 10
S4Varecha2Kowolowski6n = 8Kowolowski took 6 of 8
S5Varecha5Kowolowski2n = 7Varecha took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarechaKowolowskiV − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.442.1−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaKowolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 224 vs 151 / 27249.6%55.5%111 / 224 vs 151 / 272Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowolowskiVarecha 2.38/Kowolowski 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Kowolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kowolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 23 · 09:29P. Varecha4211117492M. Kowolowski46671111113
WJul 23 · 08:30P. Varecha471041111113M. Kowolowski4312113982
LJul 21 · 21:30P. Varecha2561090M. Kowolowski341112113
LJul 21 · 18:00P. Varecha4211118572M. Kowolowski43551111113
WJul 9 · 08:00P. Varecha51131179113M. Kowolowski46116111172
WJun 19 · 06:30P. Varecha481111105113M. Kowolowski4597121162
WJun 4 · 09:00P. Varecha42113611113M. Kowolowski4381111672
LJun 4 · 06:30P. Varecha154560M. Kowolowski331111113
LJun 1 · 09:30P. Varecha296111021M. Kowolowski4311912113
WJun 1 · 07:00P. Varecha43711113113M. Kowolowski4511961182
P. Varecha10
LSep 14 · 11:00P. Varecha2.20115137162J. Stach1.617111111183WSep 14 · 10:00I. Taichman1.8312690P. Varecha1.831411113WSep 12 · 09:05P. Varecha2.3081115113F. Zurek1.551141371LSep 12 · 08:30V. Bosak1.7314711123P. Varecha2.0012118101WSep 12 · 07:30P. Varecha2.251111123I. Taichman1.5789100LSep 12 · 06:30F. Zurek1.53911118113P. Varecha2.3811891162LSep 11 · 08:59J. Stach1.61611116113P. Varecha2.2011931182LSep 11 · 08:30P. Varecha2.008141071J. Stach1.73111212113LSep 11 · 07:00P. Varecha2.00117881F. Zurek1.7371111113LSep 11 · 06:00I. Taichman1.57881111113P. Varecha2.2511118412
M. Kowolowski10
WSep 14 · 11:30M. Kowolowski1.7311911113I. Taichman2.00411891WSep 14 · 10:30J. Stach1.91411171142M. Kowolowski1.801161513113LAug 21 · 13:00R. Adam1.491111113M. Kowolowski2.458340LAug 21 · 12:00M. Kowolowski2.25681161R. Adam1.5711111113WAug 21 · 11:30M. Blejchar2.25271191M. Kowolowski1.5711114113LAug 21 · 10:00M. Kowolowski1.531111701I. Taichman2.3891311113LAug 16 · 20:58I. Taichman3.0013116123M. Kowolowski1.3611611101LAug 16 · 20:30L. Velicka2.001113113M. Kowolowski1.7381170WAug 16 · 19:30M. Kowolowski1.3611611113I. Taichman3.00611581LAug 16 · 18:30D. Langer1.441111113M. Kowolowski2.639430
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