TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092851
Played Sep 8Finished
Alexandr Virag
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111151614116––
Matyas Kolek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:27 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeAlexandr Virag to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexandr Virag above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 82 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Alexandr Virag at 54.2%
82 points played in total.
H2H Alexandr Virag 7–3 Matyas Kolek Matyas Kolek has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:27What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Virag
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Virag
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Virag 1321 vs Kolek 1384
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Virag 20% vs Kolek 80%
Kolek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Virag 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Virag -2 · Kolek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Virag)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVirag 1.67 / Kolek 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Virag)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13092851
Virag1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 54 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it65% 30 of 46
Kolek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 41 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVirag7wins
AwayKolek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVirag leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVirag100%4 of 4
AwayKolek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Virag4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Virag5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S3Virag7Kolek3n = 10Virag took 7 of 10
S4Virag7Kolek2n = 9Virag took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricViragKolekV − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.0+2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricViragKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 280 vs 118 / 22847.1%51.8%132 / 280 vs 118 / 228Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ViragVirag 1.67/Kolek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Virag · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Virag won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 09:30A. Virag—11113143M. Kolek—5811121
LAug 22 · 08:30A. Virag—9760M. Kolek—1111113
LAug 12 · 13:30A. Virag—96111172M. Kolek—111199113
WAug 12 · 12:30A. Virag—11118113M. Kolek—481191
WJul 28 · 09:28A. Virag—11811123M. Kolek—9119101
WJul 28 · 07:00A. Virag—81111113M. Kolek—117961
WJun 5 · 13:30A. Virag—91113123M. Kolek—11911101
WJun 5 · 10:30A. Virag—13111110113M. Kolek—15951262
WMay 25 · 07:00A. Virag—111011113M. Kolek—212841
LMay 22 · 06:30A. Virag—721191M. Kolek—11119113
A. Virag10
LSep 8 · 12:30E. Sionkala1.441111113A. Virag2.638770LSep 8 · 10:30F. Zurek1.8391311113A. Virag1.831111691LSep 2 · 09:00E. Sionkala1.44811811113A. Virag2.6311811952WSep 2 · 08:30A. Virag1.571111123Z. Zientek2.2577100LSep 2 · 07:00A. Virag2.2091020E. Sionkala1.611112113LSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WAug 22 · 09:30M. Kolek1.805811121A. Virag1.9111113143LAug 22 · 08:30M. Kolek2.101111113A. Virag1.679760WAug 22 · 07:30A. Virag2.001141110113F. Zurek1.7361141272WAug 22 · 06:30T. Hrabec1.408101121A. Virag2.7511127113
M. Kolek10
WSep 8 · 12:00M. Kolek2.101111113F. Zurek1.675440WSep 8 · 10:00M. Kolek1.911191111113E. Sionkala1.8013116782WSep 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.83913611173T. Hrabec1.831111119152LSep 6 · 12:30T. Hrabec1.73116911113M. Kolek2.0091111892WSep 6 · 11:30M. Kolek2.381211711113F. Zurek1.5314611952WSep 6 · 10:30D. Mikula1.5096100M. Kolek2.501111123LAug 30 · 09:30M. Kolek1.906580F. Zurek1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kolek2.2512114123F. Zurek1.5710811101LAug 22 · 09:30M. Kolek1.805811121A. Virag1.9111113143WAug 22 · 08:30M. Kolek2.101111113A. Virag1.679760
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.