TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140468
Played Sep 17Finished
Pavel Varecha
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11261112141012––
Matyas Kolek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 78 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Matyas Kolek at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 1–2 Matyas Kolek Pavel Varecha has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:22What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Varecha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1354 vs Kolek 1380
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 0% vs Kolek 20%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 30% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha -5 · Kolek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Varecha) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 1.61 / Kolek 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Varecha)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13140468
Varecha1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 36 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Kolek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVarecha1wins
AwayKolek2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKolek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha1Kolek2n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
S2Varecha2Kolek1n = 3Varecha took 2 of 3
S3Varecha1Kolek2n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
S4Varecha2Kolek1n = 3Varecha took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVarechaKolekV − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match41.341.30.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 224 vs 120 / 23347.8%51.5%107 / 224 vs 120 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarechaVarecha 1.61/Kolek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Varecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LMay 25 · 06:00P. Varecha48911111162M. Kolek49119135113
LMay 22 · 09:28P. Varecha311111541M. Kolek4413911113
WMay 22 · 07:30P. Varecha45111211113M. Kolek31614741
P. Varecha10
WSep 17 · 08:58M. Kolek1.7310114141P. Varecha2.0012411163LSep 17 · 07:00P. Varecha2.207540F. Zurek1.611111113LSep 17 · 06:00M. Koral1.671111113P. Varecha2.109390LSep 14 · 13:30M. Kowolowski1.4311611123P. Varecha2.606114101LSep 14 · 12:30P. Varecha2.3881160M. Kowolowski1.531113113LSep 14 · 11:00P. Varecha2.20115137162J. Stach1.617111111183WSep 14 · 10:00I. Taichman1.8312690P. Varecha1.831411113WSep 12 · 09:05P. Varecha2.3081115113F. Zurek1.551141371LSep 12 · 08:30V. Bosak1.7314711123P. Varecha2.0012118101WSep 12 · 07:30P. Varecha2.251111123I. Taichman1.5789100
M. Kolek10
LSep 17 · 08:58M. Kolek1.7310114141P. Varecha2.0012411163LSep 17 · 07:30M. Kolek2.506860M. Koral1.501111113LSep 17 · 06:30F. Zurek1.61111311113M. Kolek2.20815661LSep 15 · 20:58M. Kolek1.61118111132J. Stach2.20131164113WSep 15 · 20:00M. Kolek1.83121112113J. Stach1.831031471LSep 15 · 19:30J. Peter2.001111113M. Kolek1.735350LSep 15 · 18:00M. Kolek2.109970M. Jasek1.671111113WSep 8 · 13:30M. Kolek1.831471111113F. Zurek1.8316116872WSep 8 · 12:00M. Kolek2.101111113F. Zurek1.675440LSep 8 · 11:30A. Virag1.6781116113M. Kolek2.101151461
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