TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140422
Played Sep 17Finished
Matyas Kolek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811611––––
Michal Koral
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatyas Kolek above · Michal Koral below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Matyas Kolek at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Kolek 0–1 Michal Koral Matyas Kolek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:15What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Koral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1401 vs Koral 1497
Koral
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 20% vs Koral 60%
Koral
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 50% vs Koral 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -2 · Koral +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Koral) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.50 / Koral 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Koral)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140422
Kolek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Koral1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKolek0wins
AwayKoral1wins
Koral leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricKolekKoralKolek − KoralBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match20.033.0−13.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekKoralBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 234 vs 109 / 21251.7%51.4%121 / 234 vs 109 / 212Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralKolek 2.50/Koral 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 17 · 07:30M. Kolek206860M. Koral331111113
M. Kolek10
WSep 17 · 08:30P. Varecha1.6111612101M. Kolek2.2021114123LSep 17 · 06:30F. Zurek1.61111311113M. Kolek2.20815661LSep 15 · 20:58M. Kolek1.61118111132J. Stach2.20131164113WSep 15 · 20:00M. Kolek1.83121112113J. Stach1.831031471LSep 15 · 19:30J. Peter2.001111113M. Kolek1.735350LSep 15 · 18:00M. Kolek2.109970M. Jasek1.671111113WSep 8 · 13:30M. Kolek1.831471111113F. Zurek1.8316116872WSep 8 · 12:00M. Kolek2.101111113F. Zurek1.675440LSep 8 · 11:30A. Virag1.6781116113M. Kolek2.101151461WSep 8 · 10:00M. Kolek1.911191111113E. Sionkala1.8013116782
M. Koral10
WSep 17 · 08:00M. Koral1.6111116113F. Zurek2.20971141WSep 17 · 06:00M. Koral1.671111113P. Varecha2.109390LSep 9 · 21:30M. Koral1.954690M. Blejchar1.751111113WSep 9 · 20:30M. Koral1.4411811113R. Guliak2.63811591LSep 9 · 19:00M. Koral2.00711791M. Blejchar1.7311611113WSep 9 · 18:00R. Adam1.837840M. Koral1.831111113LSep 8 · 17:00I. Taichman1.421113811113M. Koral2.6051511982LSep 8 · 16:00P. Hanel1.83821211133M. Koral1.831111109112LSep 8 · 15:00M. Blejchar2.0011119113M. Koral1.73561181LSep 8 · 14:30M. Koral1.731168121I. Taichman2.0091111143
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