TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140563
Played Sep 17Finished
Filip Zurek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911811––––
Michal Koral
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Zurek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Zurek above · Michal Koral below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Filip Zurek at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Filip Zurek 1–2 Michal Koral Filip Zurek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Zurek beat Koral 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:42What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Koral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zurek 1517 vs Koral 1517
Koral
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zurek 80% vs Koral 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zurek 60% vs Koral 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zurek +2 · Koral +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Koral) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koral form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZurek 2.20 / Koral 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Koral)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13140563
Zurek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 100 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back31% 35 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Koral1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeZurek1wins
AwayKoral2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKoral leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zurek1Koral2n = 3Koral took 2 of 3
S2Zurek1Koral2n = 3Koral took 2 of 3
S3Zurek1Koral2n = 3Koral took 2 of 3
S4Zurek1Koral2n = 3Koral took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricZurekKoralZ − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.744.0−5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZurekKoralBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 608 vs 110 / 21451%51.4%310 / 608 vs 110 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralZurek 2.20/Koral 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 17 · 09:28F. Zurek521211511133M. Koral54149119112
LSep 17 · 08:00F. Zurek31971141M. Koral3911116113
LOct 31 · 12:00F. Zurek33118771M. Koral3961111113
F. Zurek10
WSep 17 · 10:00E. Sionkala2.38117491F. Zurek1.5391111113WSep 17 · 09:28M. Koral1.50149119112F. Zurek2.501211511133LSep 17 · 08:00M. Koral1.6111116113F. Zurek2.20971141WSep 17 · 07:00P. Varecha2.207540F. Zurek1.611111113WSep 16 · 08:59I. Taichman2.1011914922F. Zurek1.675111211113WSep 16 · 08:30I. Taichman1.83111090F. Zurek1.831312113LSep 16 · 07:30F. Zurek2.7551270R. Adam1.401114113LSep 16 · 06:30E. Gebek1.5311815113F. Zurek2.387111391LSep 13 · 13:07F. Zurek7.504560R. Adam1.071111113WSep 13 · 12:30R. Adam1.449850F. Zurek2.631111113
M. Koral10
WSep 17 · 12:00E. Sionkala2.1071181142M. Koral1.67118117113WSep 17 · 10:30M. Koral1.401311119113M. Kolek2.7515451152LSep 17 · 09:28M. Koral1.50149119112F. Zurek2.501211511133WSep 17 · 08:00M. Koral1.6111116113F. Zurek2.20971141WSep 17 · 07:30M. Kolek2.506860M. Koral1.501111113WSep 17 · 06:00M. Koral1.671111113P. Varecha2.109390LSep 9 · 21:30M. Koral1.954690M. Blejchar1.751111113WSep 9 · 20:30M. Koral1.4411811113R. Guliak2.63811591LSep 9 · 19:00M. Koral2.00711791M. Blejchar1.7311611113WSep 9 · 18:00R. Adam1.837840M. Koral1.831111113
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