TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140720
Played Sep 17Finished
Michal Koral
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1315114115911115
Matyas Kolek
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Koral above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 95 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Matyas Kolek at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Michal Koral 1–0 Matyas Kolek Matyas Kolek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Koral beat Kolek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:12What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Koral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Koral 1510 vs Kolek 1387
Koral
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koral 60% vs Kolek 20%
Koral
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koral 50% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koral -1 · Kolek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Koral) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoral 1.40 / Kolek 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Koral)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140720
Koral1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Kolek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKoral1wins
AwayKolek0wins
Koral leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKoralKolekKoral − KolekBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.020.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoralKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 213 vs 121 / 23551.2%51.5%109 / 213 vs 121 / 235Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralKoral 1.40/Kolek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Koral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 07:30M. Koral331111113M. Kolek206860
M. Koral10
WSep 17 · 12:00E. Sionkala2.1071181142M. Koral1.67118117113WSep 17 · 11:00F. Zurek2.206980M. Koral1.611111113LSep 17 · 09:28M. Koral1.50149119112F. Zurek2.501211511133WSep 17 · 08:00M. Koral1.6111116113F. Zurek2.20971141WSep 17 · 07:30M. Kolek2.506860M. Koral1.501111113WSep 17 · 06:00M. Koral1.671111113P. Varecha2.109390LSep 9 · 21:30M. Koral1.954690M. Blejchar1.751111113WSep 9 · 20:30M. Koral1.4411811113R. Guliak2.63811591LSep 9 · 19:00M. Koral2.00711791M. Blejchar1.7311611113WSep 9 · 18:00R. Adam1.837840M. Koral1.831111113
M. Kolek10
WSep 17 · 11:30M. Kolek1.9111118113E. Sionkala1.80991141LSep 17 · 08:58M. Kolek1.7310114141P. Varecha2.0012411163WSep 17 · 08:30P. Varecha1.6111612101M. Kolek2.2021114123LSep 17 · 07:30M. Kolek2.506860M. Koral1.501111113LSep 15 · 20:58M. Kolek1.61118111132J. Stach2.20131164113WSep 15 · 20:00M. Kolek1.83121112113J. Stach1.831031471LSep 15 · 19:30J. Peter2.001111113M. Kolek1.735350LSep 15 · 18:00M. Kolek2.109970M. Jasek1.671111113WSep 8 · 13:30M. Kolek1.831471111113F. Zurek1.8316116872WSep 8 · 12:00M. Kolek2.101111113F. Zurek1.675440
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