TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13134273
Played Sep 16Finished
Vaclav Nohejl 2005
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611211118511––
Michal Jezek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:22 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Jezek to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Nohejl 2005 above · Michal Jezek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 65 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Michal Jezek at 55.6%
65 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nohejl 2005 1–2 Michal Jezek Vaclav Nohejl 2005 has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:22What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jezek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nohejl 1700 vs Jezek 1783
Jezek
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nohejl 40% vs Jezek 60%
Jezek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nohejl 50% vs Jezek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nohejl +1 · Jezek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jezek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nohejl form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNohejl 1.91 / Jezek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jezek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13134273
Nohejl1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 16 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back26% 6 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Jezek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 16 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeNohejl1wins
AwayJezek2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderJezek leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nohejl2Jezek1n = 3Nohejl took 2 of 3
S2Nohejl0Jezek3n = 3Jezek took 3 of 3
S3Nohejl1Jezek2n = 3Jezek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricNohejlJezekN − JBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match41.045.3−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNohejlJezekBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 315 vs 179 / 35454.3%50.6%171 / 315 vs 179 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JezekNohejl 1.91/Jezek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jezek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jezek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 26 · 17:00V. Nohejl195770M. Jezek331111113
LAug 26 · 16:30V. Nohejl54139141352M. Jezek6011111215113
WAug 25 · 14:30V. Nohejl50119811113M. Jezek4351111792
V. Nohejl10
LSep 16 · 15:00R. Urbaniec2.20711127113V. Nohejl1.61119101192WSep 13 · 16:58J. Ruzicka1.801110941V. Nohejl1.9171211113LSep 13 · 16:00J. Jr1.44811711113V. Nohejl2.6311911542LSep 13 · 15:00O. Kolisnyk1.911111113V. Nohejl1.808250LSep 13 · 14:30V. Nohejl1.807980J. Ruzicka1.911111113WSep 10 · 17:00O. Svacha2.631011431V. Nohejl1.4412511113LSep 10 · 16:00V. Nohejl1.611171071A. Brazda2.2041112113LSep 10 · 15:30O. Svacha3.0091111113V. Nohejl1.36116551WSep 10 · 14:00V. Nohejl1.57651211113R. Urbaniec2.25111110942WSep 5 · 09:30V. Nohejl1.7311117113V. Vejvoda2.00571171
M. Jezek10
LSep 16 · 15:30M. Jezek1.6711851152O. Kolisnyk2.10911116113WSep 9 · 17:00R. Urbaniec1.8356100M. Jezek1.831111123LSep 9 · 16:30M. Jezek1.915260J. Ruzicka1.801111113LSep 9 · 15:00M. Jezek1.731212841O. Kolisnyk2.00101411113WSep 9 · 14:00R. Urbaniec1.831011761M. Jezek1.7812711113WSep 3 · 17:28M. Jezek2.20111011113J. Kanera1.61612461LSep 3 · 16:00J. Kanera1.57118119123M. Jezek2.25611911102WSep 3 · 15:00O. Svacha2.2511980M. Jezek1.571311113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Jezek1.33611119113V. Kolar3.2511481192WSep 2 · 17:00M. Jezek2.3811911113J. Ruzicka1.53611571
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M. Jezek
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