TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131347
Played Sep 15Finished
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118711113711
Adam Dvoracek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Dvoracek to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Adam Dvoracek at 58.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 5–7 Adam Dvoracek Frantisek Schmidtmayer has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dvoracek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Dvoracek
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1415 vs Dvoracek 1410
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 60% vs Dvoracek 40%
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 60% vs Dvoracek 40%
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer +3 · Dvoracek -2
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dvoracek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvoracek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 2.00 / Dvoracek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Dvoracek)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13131347
Schmidtmayer2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 34 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Dvoracek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 71 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it74% 51 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer4wins
AwayDvoracek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer100%3 of 3
AwayDvoracek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer3Dvoracek7n = 10Dvoracek took 7 of 10
S2Schmidtmayer4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S3Schmidtmayer4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S4Schmidtmayer4Dvoracek3n = 7Schmidtmayer took 4 of 7
S5Schmidtmayer2Dvoracek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerDvoracekS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.739.6−0.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 448 vs 252 / 48245.8%52.3%205 / 448 vs 252 / 482Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekSchmidtmayer 2.00/Dvoracek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 11:00F. Schmidtmayer2494110A. Dvoracek351111133
LAug 28 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer2981290A. Dvoracek361114113
WAug 11 · 10:15F. Schmidtmayer4111118113A. Dvoracek32861171
LAug 6 · 09:30F. Schmidtmayer216960A. Dvoracek331111113
LJul 31 · 13:09F. Schmidtmayer4012101171A. Dvoracek4114124113
WJul 31 · 09:30F. Schmidtmayer48148114113A. Dvoracek49121161192
WJul 24 · 09:30F. Schmidtmayer3631111113A. Dvoracek30115861
WJul 20 · 13:09F. Schmidtmayer481141110123A. Dvoracek44711412102
LJul 20 · 10:30F. Schmidtmayer521011111192A. Dvoracek50128136113
LJun 26 · 12:43F. Schmidtmayer4881181292A. Dvoracek461131110113
F. Schmidtmayer10
LSep 15 · 20:39J. Hanacek2.2081111113F. Schmidtmayer1.61115681WSep 15 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer1.8011119113J. Hanacek1.91891191WSep 15 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer2.251111113M. Barton1.579660WSep 11 · 12:39F. Schmidtmayer1.4481111113M. Melisek2.63119741WSep 11 · 11:30M. Melisek2.38117791F. Schmidtmayer1.5381111113LSep 11 · 11:00F. Schmidtmayer2.0094110A. Dvoracek1.731111133LSep 11 · 10:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61811101132J. Hanacek2.20119126113WSep 10 · 20:28M. Drabek1.73771171F. Schmidtmayer2.0011115113LSep 10 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83211641M. Drabek1.8311711113WSep 10 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.67101111113T. Stejskal2.10129581
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 15 · 20:00A. Dvoracek1.8311871172M. Barton1.83411118113LSep 15 · 18:00J. Hanacek2.00111110113A. Dvoracek1.73981281LSep 14 · 09:04A. Dvoracek2.634111011O. Plyska1.4411812113WSep 14 · 08:00M. Vorel1.9111101291A. Dvoracek1.8051214113LSep 14 · 07:00O. Plyska1.571111113A. Dvoracek2.256770WSep 14 · 05:30J. Mejzlik1.731714431A. Dvoracek2.00191211113LSep 12 · 09:00A. Dvoracek1.57116781K. Jirousek2.2591111113WSep 12 · 08:00M. Vorel1.809880A. Dvoracek1.911111113LSep 12 · 07:00K. Farsky1.61119116113A. Dvoracek2.2091131172WSep 11 · 11:00F. Schmidtmayer2.0094110A. Dvoracek1.731111133
Upcoming Matches
F. Schmidtmayer
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A. Dvoracek
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