TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131326
Played Sep 15Finished
Illia Hermakivskyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911411114711––
Vitalii S Marushchak
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeIllia Hermakivskyi to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIllia Hermakivskyi above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Illia Hermakivskyi at 60.1%
68 points played in total.
H2H Illia Hermakivskyi 2–0 Vitalii S Marushchak Vitalii S Marushchak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hermakivskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hermakivskyi 1677 vs Marushchak 1843
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hermakivskyi 60% vs Marushchak 80%
Marushchak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hermakivskyi 50% vs Marushchak 80%
Marushchak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hermakivskyi -1 · Marushchak +3
Marushchak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hermakivskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHermakivskyi 1.40 / Marushchak 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Hermakivskyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13131326
Hermakivskyi1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 10 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Marushchak2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 69 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHermakivskyi2wins
AwayMarushchak0wins
Hermakivskyi leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHermakivskyiMarushchakH − MBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.020.0+13.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHermakivskyiMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime24 / 52 vs 320 / 65146.2%49.2%24 / 52 vs 320 / 651Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HermakivskyiHermakivskyi 1.40/Marushchak 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Hermakivskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 21 · 12:00I. Hermakivskyi331111113V. Marushchak229490
WMay 8 · 15:38I. Hermakivskyi331111113V. Marushchak187560
I. Hermakivskyi10
LSep 15 · 16:30I. Hermakivskyi1.44123791A. Hrabskyi2.63101111113WSep 15 · 15:00I. Hermakivskyi1.8011101013113A. Lievshin1.91412121132WSep 15 · 13:30I. Hermakivskyi1.61111298123A. Yurkov2.206101111102WSep 15 · 12:00I. Hermakivskyi1.441211113O. Seliuchenko2.6310350LAug 21 · 17:13I. Hermakivskyi2.751151241O. Bondarchuk1.4061114113WAug 21 · 16:00O. Ivchuk1.508880I. Hermakivskyi2.501111113LAug 21 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.361111113I. Hermakivskyi3.007580LAug 21 · 13:00A. Tkachenko2.00141011143I. Hermakivskyi1.7312127121WAug 21 · 12:00D. Neborak1.61811511102I. Hermakivskyi2.20119116123LAug 13 · 08:35O. Bondarchuk1.6771211113I. Hermakivskyi2.101110661
V. Marushchak10
WSep 15 · 17:00V. Marushchak1.671111113A. Lievshin2.107790WSep 15 · 16:00V. Marushchak1.441111113O. Seliuchenko2.637640WSep 15 · 14:30V. Marushchak1.5311159113A. Hrabskyi2.383131171LSep 15 · 12:30V. Marushchak1.83411561A. Yurkov1.8311511113WSep 14 · 16:40V. Marushchak1.4471111113V. Voronenko2.63115221WSep 14 · 15:10V. Marushchak1.501111113O. Kolbasenko2.505580WSep 14 · 13:40V. Marushchak1.9111117113A. Yurkov1.80941151WSep 14 · 12:10V. Marushchak1.6711611113A. Lievshin2.10611751LSep 14 · 10:40V. Marushchak1.5385111272A. Hrabskyi2.381111410113WSep 11 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.385610V. Marushchak1.531111113
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