TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129022
Played Sep 15Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116119811118
Tibor Kolenic
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Tibor Kolenic below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 75.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 0–3 Tibor Kolenic Adam Svoboda has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:31What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolenic
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Kolenic
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1495 vs Kolenic 1405
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Kolenic 0%
Svoboda
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Kolenic 10%
Svoboda
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -1 · Kolenic -5
Kolenic
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kolenic) · live re-read · sealed at 24% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenic form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.20 / Kolenic 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129022
Svoboda2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 42 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Kolenic1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 67 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it73% 54 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSvoboda0wins
AwayKolenic3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKolenic leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvobodan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKolenic100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda0Kolenic3n = 3Kolenic took 3 of 3
S2Svoboda1Kolenic2n = 3Kolenic took 2 of 3
S3Svoboda2Kolenic1n = 3Svoboda took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSvobodaKolenicS − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match36.743.7−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaKolenicBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 320 vs 260 / 55852.8%46.6%169 / 320 vs 260 / 558Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolenicSvoboda 2.20/Kolenic 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Kolenic · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 15 · 15:00A. Svoboda43561111102T. Kolenic51111198123
LAug 14 · 10:30A. Svoboda2310490T. Kolenic341211113
LJul 17 · 20:00A. Svoboda4471111692T. Kolenic46117611113
A. Svoboda10
LSep 14 · 13:28A. Svoboda1.80119981J. Steffan1.9161111113WSep 14 · 12:00J. Steffan1.801211209142A. Svoboda1.911461811163WSep 14 · 11:00V. Pecka2.0081060A. Svoboda1.731112113WSep 14 · 10:30A. Svoboda2.63117311113K. Darin1.4491111792WSep 14 · 09:00M. Stefek2.008730A. Svoboda1.731111113LSep 14 · 08:00K. Darin1.531111113A. Svoboda2.387380LSep 14 · 07:00M. Stefek2.25111111113A. Svoboda1.57413751LSep 14 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.7311134442J. Jnr2.007111111113WSep 13 · 03:29A. Svoboda1.7351111113F. Briza2.00113471WSep 13 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.9112119113M. Kolar1.801071181
T. Kolenic10
LSep 11 · 20:58K. Darin1.911310911113T. Kolenic1.80111211542LSep 11 · 20:30K. Darin2.20611115113T. Kolenic1.6111651162LSep 11 · 19:30T. Kolenic1.57116761L. Krok2.2541111113LSep 11 · 18:30K. Novak1.36127811113T. Kolenic3.00101111692LAug 31 · 17:01J. Dedek1.851111113T. Kolenic1.858480WAug 31 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.83117511113J. Dedek1.8371111792LAug 31 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.20118991J. Trefny1.6151111113LAug 31 · 14:00R. Pavelka1.28351111113T. Kolenic3.5011114672LAug 31 · 08:58M. Kolar1.221111113T. Kolenic4.009570LAug 31 · 08:30M. Kolar1.251113113T. Kolenic3.7541140
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