TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128518
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210116––––
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Naida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Naida at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 121–117 Roman Gnoevoy Roman Gnoevoy has won 117 of their 238 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gnoevoy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
121-117 in 238
Naida
Correct
gap of 4 in 238, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1464 vs Gnoevoy 1523
Gnoevoy
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 0% vs Gnoevoy 60%
Gnoevoy
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 40% vs Gnoevoy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -5 · Gnoevoy +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gnoevoy) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 1.83 / Gnoevoy 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gnoevoy)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13128518
Naida1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Gnoevoy1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida2wins
AwayGnoevoy8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaidan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGnoevoy87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida2Gnoevoy8n = 10Gnoevoy took 8 of 10
S2Naida2Gnoevoy8n = 10Gnoevoy took 8 of 10
S3Naida4Gnoevoy6n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Naida4Gnoevoy2n = 6Naida took 4 of 6
S5Naida1Gnoevoy3n = 4Gnoevoy took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaGnoevoyN − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.040.7−4.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 935 vs 408 / 81851.4%49.9%481 / 935 vs 408 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyNaida 1.83/Gnoevoy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 01:55O. Naida50812111362R. Gnoevoy541114711113
LAug 28 · 19:35O. Naida351141191R. Gnoevoy4213117113
LAug 28 · 03:55O. Naida2594120R. Gnoevoy361111143
LAug 14 · 24:55O. Naida541111119122R. Gnoevoy56139911143
LAug 11 · 16:55O. Naida4211471462R. Gnoevoy505111112113
LAug 11 · 03:55O. Naida2261150R. Gnoevoy351113113
WAug 6 · 23:25O. Naida539111111113R. Gnoevoy4411137492
LAug 4 · 23:05O. Naida166550R. Gnoevoy331111113
WAug 3 · 22:55O. Naida4211119113R. Gnoevoy24931111
LJul 31 · 03:55O. Naida218760R. Gnoevoy331111113
O. Naida10
LSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831111113O. Naida1.836990LSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113LSep 14 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.731111123O. Naida2.0068100LSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida2.104650S. Skachenko1.671111113LSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 02:35D. Us2.3811351252O. Naida1.538111110113WSep 9 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi2.50114911112O. Naida1.50511119133WSep 8 · 23:05S. Pitsyk1.83911981O. Naida1.8311911113WSep 8 · 21:05D. Rehotun1.735250O. Naida2.001111113LSep 7 · 20:25O. Naida1.44951181S. Khandetskyi2.6311114113
R. Gnoevoy10
WSep 15 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.73711881R. Gnoevoy2.0011911113WSep 15 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.80911811122R. Gnoevoy1.91118118143WSep 14 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.83119116102R. Gnoevoy1.83511811123LSep 14 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.7311811113R. Gnoevoy2.00711641LSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113LSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73111376163R. Gnoevoy2.004111111142LSep 11 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.919460S. Abalmaz1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113LSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz1.8071111113R. Gnoevoy1.91117751WSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980
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