TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128344
Played Sep 15Finished
Spartak Abalmaz
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119811811––
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 56.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 54–46 Roman Gnoevoy Roman Gnoevoy has won 46 of their 100 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:40What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-46 in 100
Abalmaz
Wrong
gap of 8 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1620 vs Gnoevoy 1523
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 80% vs Gnoevoy 40%
Abalmaz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 80% vs Gnoevoy 30%
Abalmaz
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz +4 · Gnoevoy +2
Abalmaz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 1.73 / Gnoevoy 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Abalmaz)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13128344
Abalmaz1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 157 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it96% 74 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it77% 114 of 148
Gnoevoy2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 88 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz6wins
AwayGnoevoy4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz60%3 of 5
AwayGnoevoy40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly
S2Abalmaz6Gnoevoy4n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S3Abalmaz6Gnoevoy4n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S4Abalmaz2Gnoevoy6n = 8Gnoevoy took 6 of 8
S5Abalmaz4Gnoevoy1n = 5Abalmaz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazGnoevoyA − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.8+1.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 830 vs 408 / 81850.8%49.9%422 / 830 vs 408 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazAbalmaz 1.73/Gnoevoy 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 23:25S. Abalmaz47911115113R. Gnoevoy4311591172
WSep 4 · 02:25S. Abalmaz501051113113R. Gnoevoy50121191172
WSep 1 · 22:25S. Abalmaz331111113R. Gnoevoy185670
LAug 31 · 23:25S. Abalmaz4371111772R. Gnoevoy45117511113
WAug 31 · 24:25S. Abalmaz47611811113R. Gnoevoy4311811582
WAug 28 · 16:05S. Abalmaz331111113R. Gnoevoy196580
WAug 28 · 24:55S. Abalmaz48121186113R. Gnoevoy43107111142
LAug 14 · 04:25S. Abalmaz31891131R. Gnoevoy3811115113
LAug 11 · 18:55S. Abalmaz331181041R. Gnoevoy4061112113
LAug 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz401151951R. Gnoevoy4961121113
S. Abalmaz10
WSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113WSep 14 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.5011991192S. Abalmaz1.50211118113WSep 14 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.8011113111S. Abalmaz1.9181311133WSep 11 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.73771191S. Abalmaz2.0011119113LSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113WSep 11 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.919460S. Abalmaz1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.50111111113S. Abalmaz1.50561381WSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz1.8071111113R. Gnoevoy1.91117751WSep 8 · 18:25S. Skachenko1.838790S. Abalmaz1.831111113WSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113
R. Gnoevoy10
WSep 15 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.80911811122R. Gnoevoy1.91118118143WSep 14 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.83119116102R. Gnoevoy1.83511811123LSep 14 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.7311811113R. Gnoevoy2.00711641LSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113LSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73111376163R. Gnoevoy2.004111111142LSep 11 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.919460S. Abalmaz1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113LSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz1.8071111113R. Gnoevoy1.91117751WSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980LSep 8 · 16:55V. Khamurda1.611311113R. Gnoevoy2.2011980
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