TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126342
Played Sep 14Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.14
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117811911116119
Serhii Kiilo
Away
5.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Serhii Kiilo below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 86.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 70–7 Serhii Kiilo Serhii Kiilo has won 7 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:21What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-7 in 77
Balabei
Correct
gap of 63 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balabei 1986 vs Kiilo 1727
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 259 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balabei 80% vs Kiilo 20%
Balabei
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balabei 70% vs Kiilo 20%
Balabei
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Balabei +4 · Kiilo +1
Balabei
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.14 / Kiilo 5.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Balabei)+5.4pp
Setka Cup · #13126342
Balabei1.14
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 197 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it97% 94 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it87% 139 of 159
Kiilo5.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back13% 16 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei9wins
AwayKiilo1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei100%6 of 6
AwayKiilo25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei6Kiilo4n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S2Balabei9Kiilo1n = 10Balabei took 9 of 10
S3Balabei7Kiilo3n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S4Balabei4Kiilo2n = 6Balabei took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiKiiloB − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.032.5+7.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiKiiloBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 1000 vs 99 / 36850.8%26.9%508 / 1000 vs 99 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.734.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.14/Kiilo 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 12:00S. Balabei361112133S. Kiilo27610110
WAug 1 · 12:30S. Balabei3713112113S. Kiilo361191151
WJul 30 · 12:30S. Balabei56121788113S. Kiilo551015111182
WJul 24 · 08:30S. Balabei331111113S. Kiilo239860
WJul 16 · 16:00S. Balabei4071111113S. Kiilo33117871
WJul 6 · 16:00S. Balabei331111113S. Kiilo197480
WJun 29 · 14:00S. Balabei43101111113S. Kiilo33127951
WJun 16 · 13:30S. Balabei50891111113S. Kiilo3911114942
WJun 14 · 12:30S. Balabei351311113S. Kiilo2111730
LJun 8 · 12:30S. Balabei377111091S. Kiilo3911512113
S. Balabei10
WSep 14 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91151111161S. Balabei1.8017136183WSep 14 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25117521S. Balabei1.3391111113WSep 14 · 12:30M. Levytskii4.5010613101S. Balabei1.17121111123WSep 11 · 17:02S. Balabei1.361112411163V. Komar3.00314119142LSep 11 · 16:00V. Komar2.00118116123S. Balabei1.73811211102WSep 11 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.20491151S. Balabei1.6111114113WSep 11 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.40611731S. Balabei1.3011711113LSep 11 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.919750WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112
S. Kiilo10
WSep 14 · 14:30M. Levytskii2.25781231S. Kiilo1.57111110113LSep 14 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko1.3612119113S. Kiilo3.001071141LSep 14 · 12:00R. Horokh1.1411811113S. Kiilo5.00611651LSep 8 · 17:14D. Kryshtal—11811113S. Kiilo—411571LSep 8 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko1.361111113S. Kiilo3.003690WSep 8 · 15:00S. Kiilo3.25611118123V. Komar1.33116911102LSep 8 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.75117311D. Kryshtal1.2571111113LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021
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