TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126528
Played Sep 14Finished
Roman Horokh
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
151711131161618––
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Horokh above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 16-18
Point 107 set 4, 16-18 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 54.0%
107 points played in total.
H2H Roman Horokh 210–118 Serhii Balabei Serhii Balabei has won 118 of their 328 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
210-118 in 328
Horokh
Wrong
gap of 92 in 328, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horokh 1939 vs Balabei 1986
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horokh 80% vs Balabei 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horokh 50% vs Balabei 70%
Balabei
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horokh +3 · Balabei +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorokh 1.91 / Balabei 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Balabei)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13126528
Horokh1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog15% won 12 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back4% 2 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Balabei1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 197 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it97% 94 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it87% 139 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorokh4wins
AwayBalabei6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorokh33.3%2 of 6
AwayBalabei50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horokh6Balabei4n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S2Horokh3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S3Horokh5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S4Horokh3Balabei4n = 7Balabei took 4 of 7
S5Horokh2Balabei3n = 5Balabei took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorokhBalabeiH − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.741.3−1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorokhBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime696 / 1237 vs 508 / 100056.3%50.8%696 / 1237 vs 508 / 1000Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiHorokh 1.91/Balabei 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 12:00R. Horokh557141211113S. Balabei49111610932
LAug 20 · 07:00R. Horokh4012831162S. Balabei491011116113
WAug 18 · 17:00R. Horokh351113113S. Balabei2361160
WAug 18 · 12:00R. Horokh495111210113S. Balabei45114101282
LAug 13 · 10:30R. Horokh4211125952S. Balabei529101111113
LAug 13 · 07:00R. Horokh257990S. Balabei331111113
WAug 12 · 16:00R. Horokh4011711113S. Balabei32911571
LAug 11 · 16:59R. Horokh561311117142S. Balabei561113511163
LAug 11 · 16:00R. Horokh2310760S. Balabei341211113
LAug 6 · 09:00R. Horokh321111551S. Balabei4051311113
R. Horokh10
WSep 14 · 13:30R. Horokh1.11671116113M. Levytskii6.00111131492WSep 14 · 12:00R. Horokh1.1411811113S. Kiilo5.00611651WSep 12 · 10:00S. Kushnirenko2.2061111752R. Horokh1.61119911113LSep 12 · 08:30S. Ponomarenko1.1711911113R. Horokh4.50811861WSep 12 · 07:30R. Horokh1.40101111113V. Komar2.75127831WSep 12 · 06:30D. Kryshtal2.63117861R. Horokh1.4451111113LSep 12 · 05:30R. Horokh1.506111081S. Kushnirenko2.5011712113LSep 11 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.50141011113R. Horokh1.501212781LSep 11 · 15:00R. Horokh1.5312116101V. Komar2.3814911123LSep 11 · 13:30R. Horokh1.5011771182D. Kryshtal2.50511112113
S. Balabei10
WSep 14 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25117521S. Balabei1.3391111113WSep 14 · 12:30M. Levytskii4.5010613101S. Balabei1.17121111123WSep 11 · 17:02S. Balabei1.361112411163V. Komar3.00314119142LSep 11 · 16:00V. Komar2.00118116123S. Balabei1.73811211102WSep 11 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.20491151S. Balabei1.6111114113WSep 11 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.40611731S. Balabei1.3011711113LSep 11 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.919750WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130LAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112WAug 31 · 15:00S. Balabei1.441211113D. Yurkov2.6310670
Upcoming Matches
R. Horokh
S. Balabei
Nothing scheduled
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