TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122029
Played Sep 13Finished
Serhii Paksiutov
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11131113711––––
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kruglyak to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Paksiutov above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 66 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Volodymyr Kruglyak at 61.2%
66 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Paksiutov 11–13 Volodymyr Kruglyak Serhii Paksiutov has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kruglyak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Kruglyak
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paksiutov 1041 vs Kruglyak 1170
Kruglyak
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paksiutov 20% vs Kruglyak 60%
Kruglyak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paksiutov 20% vs Kruglyak 60%
Kruglyak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Paksiutov -1 · Kruglyak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kruglyak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paksiutov form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPaksiutov 2.50 / Kruglyak 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kruglyak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13122029
Paksiutov2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog18% won 7 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Kruglyak1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePaksiutov4wins
AwayKruglyak6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKruglyak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaksiutov60%3 of 5
AwayKruglyak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paksiutov5Kruglyak5n = 10split evenly
S2Paksiutov6Kruglyak4n = 10Paksiutov took 6 of 10
S3Paksiutov2Kruglyak8n = 10Kruglyak took 8 of 10
S4Paksiutov4Kruglyak4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaksiutovKruglyakP − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.735.7−3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaksiutovKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 104 vs 81 / 25630.8%31.6%32 / 104 vs 81 / 256Avg sets wonper match1.51.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.134.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KruglyakPaksiutov 2.50/Kruglyak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Kruglyak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kruglyak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov229490V. Kruglyak331111113
WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov4291111113V. Kruglyak33116881
LMar 8 · 16:05S. Paksiutov209380V. Kruglyak331111113
WFeb 1 · 17:55S. Paksiutov4611118163V. Kruglyak397711141
LJan 4 · 16:05S. Paksiutov32119661V. Kruglyak3971111103
WDec 21 · 20:25S. Paksiutov4011711113V. Kruglyak29911451
WNov 23 · 13:35S. Paksiutov351211663V. Kruglyak331091131
LNov 9 · 19:25S. Paksiutov28611561V. Kruglyak3811511113
LSep 28 · 13:05S. Paksiutov26611451V. Kruglyak3711411113
LSep 14 · 14:35S. Paksiutov3611117252V. Kruglyak4359111173
S. Paksiutov10
LSep 13 · 17:05V. Melnyk3.50116611113S. Paksiutov1.2881111952WSep 13 · 16:05S. Paksiutov2.75613411113V. Lukianevych1.40111111662LSep 13 · 15:05H. Buianover1.531111113S. Paksiutov2.384650LSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LAug 9 · 18:35S. Paksiutov2.2512711121H. Buianover1.5714115143LAug 9 · 17:05S. Paksiutov2.63961161M. Karelov1.4411117113LAug 9 · 15:35S. Paksiutov4.001161111102A. Sydorenko1.22811139123LAug 9 · 14:05S. Paksiutov2.75511481V. Reva1.4011811113LAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881
V. Kruglyak10
LSep 13 · 18:05V. Lukianevych1.36111183V. Kruglyak3.008810WSep 13 · 16:35H. Buianover1.6777111182V. Kruglyak2.10111139113WSep 13 · 14:35M. Karelov2.634760V. Kruglyak1.441111113WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 19:05V. Leonov1.101111113V. Kruglyak6.508670LAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva1.2012136113V. Kruglyak4.3310111101WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113WAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover1.571011861V. Kruglyak2.2512911113WAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113LJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881
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