TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117029
Played Sep 12Finished
Yehor Riadynskyi
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911118119––
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 71.1% is still 71.1%
Graded at full timeYehor Riadynskyi to win
71.1%
71.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYehor Riadynskyi above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Yehor Riadynskyi at 71.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Yehor Riadynskyi 30–8 Oleksandr Zhyrnov Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 8 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:22What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Riadynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-8 in 38
Riadynskyi
Correct
gap of 22 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Riadynskyi 1679 vs Zhyrnov 1753
Zhyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Riadynskyi 40% vs Zhyrnov 60%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Riadynskyi 40% vs Zhyrnov 70%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Riadynskyi -1 · Zhyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Riadynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRiadynskyi 1.30 / Zhyrnov 3.40
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Riadynskyi)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13117029
Riadynskyi1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 187 of 293
Up 2–0, closes it91% 90 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it79% 136 of 172
Zhyrnov3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRiadynskyi9wins
AwayZhyrnov1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRiadynskyi leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRiadynskyi100%8 of 8
AwayZhyrnovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Riadynskyi8Zhyrnov2n = 10Riadynskyi took 8 of 10
S2Riadynskyi6Zhyrnov4n = 10Riadynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Riadynskyi7Zhyrnov3n = 10Riadynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Riadynskyi3Zhyrnov3n = 6split evenly
S5Riadynskyi3Zhyrnov0n = 3Riadynskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRiadynskyiZhyrnovR − ZBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.834.4+5.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRiadynskyiZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime397 / 701 vs 384 / 77156.6%49.8%397 / 701 vs 384 / 771Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RiadynskyiRiadynskyi 1.30/Zhyrnov 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.1%
Riadynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Riadynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 7 · 19:50Y. Riadynskyi4215511113O. Zhyrnov361311481
WApr 16 · 17:50Y. Riadynskyi4311147113O. Zhyrnov399121171
WApr 3 · 07:20Y. Riadynskyi4511716113O. Zhyrnov353111471
WMar 30 · 21:50Y. Riadynskyi331111113O. Zhyrnov194690
WMar 27 · 10:35Y. Riadynskyi541411117113O. Zhyrnov50121371172
WMar 23 · 22:50Y. Riadynskyi44111156113O. Zhyrnov3526111152
LMar 20 · 06:50Y. Riadynskyi2591330O. Zhyrnov371115113
WMar 19 · 20:20Y. Riadynskyi341112113O. Zhyrnov2451090
WMar 16 · 20:50Y. Riadynskyi351113113O. Zhyrnov2571170
WMar 9 · 20:50Y. Riadynskyi43812112103O. Zhyrnov44111051172
Y. Riadynskyi10
LSep 12 · 10:50M. Mrykh1.8311117103Y. Riadynskyi1.83881191WSep 12 · 08:50A. Zozulia2.637790Y. Riadynskyi1.441111113WSep 12 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi1.67611119113O. Strutinskiy2.1011961162LSep 12 · 06:50V. Savoliuk2.1011117123Y. Riadynskyi1.673411101LAug 28 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi1.61131161162O. Strutinskiy2.201151113113LAug 28 · 10:20V. Savoliuk2.1011117113Y. Riadynskyi1.67881191WAug 28 · 09:20Y. Riadynskyi2.1091111113A. Zozulia1.67112691WAug 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko2.631258101Y. Riadynskyi1.44101111123LAug 28 · 06:50Y. Riadynskyi1.5761090E. Hrytsenko2.251112113LAug 20 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.6751140V. Maksuta2.101113113
O. Zhyrnov10
LSep 12 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov3.5091251182O. Strutinskiy1.281110117113WSep 12 · 09:20V. Savoliuk1.40981111132O. Zhyrnov2.75111188153WSep 12 · 07:20A. Zozulia3.2591171172O. Zhyrnov1.33117119113LSep 12 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.531111113O. Zhyrnov2.389880WSep 10 · 17:10A. Zozulia1.9110490O. Zhyrnov1.801211113WSep 10 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.6364110O. Zhyrnov1.441111133WSep 10 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn2.206590O. Zhyrnov1.611111113WSep 10 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.381112481O. Zhyrnov1.5351411113LSep 10 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.83119159113O. Zhyrnov1.83811131192WSep 8 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov3.7515127113O. Strutinskiy1.2513101191
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