TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116952
Played Sep 12Finished
Vasyl Moroz
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1199111210118––
Oleksii Kulbach
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeVasyl Moroz to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Moroz above · Oleksii Kulbach below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vasyl Moroz at 58.5%
81 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moroz 9–5 Oleksii Kulbach Oleksii Kulbach has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:17What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Moroz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Moroz
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moroz 452 vs Kulbach 382
Moroz
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moroz 20% vs Kulbach 40%
Kulbach
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moroz 20% vs Kulbach 40%
Kulbach
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moroz -4 · Kulbach +1
Moroz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Moroz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moroz form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoroz 1.61 / Kulbach 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Moroz)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13116952
Moroz1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 8 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Kulbach2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog15% won 14 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back8% 5 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoroz8wins
AwayKulbach2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMoroz leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoroz100%7 of 7
AwayKulbach66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moroz7Kulbach3n = 10Moroz took 7 of 10
S2Moroz4Kulbach6n = 10Kulbach took 6 of 10
S3Moroz8Kulbach2n = 10Moroz took 8 of 10
S4Moroz5Kulbach1n = 6Moroz took 5 of 6
S5Moroz2Kulbach1n = 3Moroz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMorozKulbachM − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.734.8+4.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorozKulbachBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 103 vs 44 / 19030.1%23.2%31 / 103 vs 44 / 190Avg sets wonper match1.41.4per matchAvg pointsper match33.933.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MorozMoroz 1.61/Kulbach 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Moroz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moroz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 07:05V. Moroz47109111162O. Kulbach46121166113
WAug 7 · 06:55V. Moroz4211713113O. Kulbach355111181
LAug 6 · 10:25V. Moroz2511950O. Kulbach351311113
WJul 9 · 16:25V. Moroz3411111113O. Kulbach32811941
WJul 1 · 17:55V. Moroz538101111133O. Kulbach41111225112
WJun 19 · 04:55V. Moroz3611113113O. Kulbach35981171
WJun 18 · 17:55V. Moroz331111113O. Kulbach225980
WJun 12 · 07:55V. Moroz581481114113O. Kulbach55121181682
WJun 2 · 12:55V. Moroz361312113O. Kulbach25111040
WMay 2 · 10:25V. Moroz331111113O. Kulbach229850
V. Moroz10
LSep 1 · 11:05V. Moroz4.5011880V. Sydorchuk1.171311113LSep 1 · 09:05B. Pyrtyk1.141111113V. Moroz5.004540LSep 1 · 08:05V. Moroz3.40991461M. Senyk1.30111112113LSep 1 · 07:05O. Kulbach2.63121166113V. Moroz1.44109111162WSep 1 · 05:35V. Moroz1.83711118113A. Lanchut1.8311971162LAug 7 · 10:55V. Moroz4.004660P. Melnichuk1.221111113LAug 7 · 08:55M. Senyk1.282111110113V. Moroz3.5011881282LAug 7 · 07:55V. Moroz4.5012117772O. Bolnyh1.171061111113WAug 7 · 06:55O. Kulbach2.105111181V. Moroz1.6711713113LAug 7 · 05:25V. Moroz3.755980V. Sydorchuk1.251111113
O. Kulbach10
WSep 12 · 13:25P. Chyzh1.30811171O. Kulbach3.4011116113WSep 5 · 10:25M. Kornijchuk1.22211117102O. Kulbach4.00118711123LSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113LSep 5 · 08:25O. Kulbach2.7558120M. Senyk1.401111143WSep 5 · 06:55O. Kulbach1.73118911113A. Lanchut2.0081111872LSep 5 · 04:55O. Kulbach4.50711451V. Sydorchuk1.1711411113LSep 1 · 10:35B. Pyrtyk1.0891111113O. Kulbach7.00117891LSep 1 · 09:35O. Kulbach1.57121379102A. Lanchut2.2510111111123WSep 1 · 07:05O. Kulbach2.63121166113V. Moroz1.44109111162LAug 7 · 06:55O. Kulbach2.105111181V. Moroz1.6711713113
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