TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13111465
Played Sep 11Finished
Ales Barton
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114117811118––
Radim Urbaniec
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeAles Barton to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Barton above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ales Barton at 68.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Ales Barton 15–6 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 6 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Barton
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-6 in 21
Barton
Correct
gap of 9 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1766 vs Urbaniec 1789
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 40% vs Urbaniec 80%
Urbaniec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 60% vs Urbaniec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton -2 · Urbaniec +3
Urbaniec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Barton) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 1.40 / Urbaniec 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Barton)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13111465
Barton1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 85 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it73% 57 of 78
Urbaniec2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 191 of 471
Down 0–1, comes back21% 56 of 264
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBarton8wins
AwayUrbaniec2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBarton leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarton87.5%7 of 8
AwayUrbaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton8Urbaniec2n = 10Barton took 8 of 10
S2Barton5Urbaniec5n = 10split evenly
S3Barton7Urbaniec3n = 10Barton took 7 of 10
S4Barton6Urbaniec2n = 8Barton took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartonUrbaniecB − UBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.932.1+7.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 434 vs 622 / 121953%51%230 / 434 vs 622 / 1219Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartonBarton 1.40/Urbaniec 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 06:00A. Barton—11118113R. Urbaniec—471181
WAug 29 · 11:30A. Barton—1111113R. Urbaniec—5880
WAug 17 · 14:30A. Barton—11611113R. Urbaniec—611571
WAug 11 · 15:00A. Barton—11411113R. Urbaniec—911861
WAug 8 · 12:30A. Barton—51112113R. Urbaniec—1181081
LAug 7 · 11:00A. Barton—711991R. Urbaniec—11311113
WAug 5 · 22:00A. Barton—11811113R. Urbaniec—211551
WJul 19 · 02:00A. Barton—1111133R. Urbaniec—98110
WJul 13 · 15:30A. Barton—119511113R. Urbaniec—41111532
LJul 8 · 17:00A. Barton—1110119102R. Urbaniec—912511123
A. Barton10
WSep 11 · 07:30V. Svechota1.9161290A. Barton1.801114113LAug 30 · 08:59A. Barton1.8016780M. Huk1.911811113LAug 30 · 08:30J. Kanera1.731171110113A. Barton2.0061171292WAug 30 · 07:30A. Barton1.67111199163M. Huk2.10961111142LAug 30 · 06:30O. Kolisnyk1.57119511113A. Barton2.2561111562WAug 29 · 13:30A. Barton1.5761111113J. Ruzicka2.25118571WAug 29 · 12:00A. Barton2.1011121011123J. Kanera1.671310128102WAug 29 · 11:30R. Urbaniec2.635880A. Barton1.441111113WAug 29 · 10:00A. Barton1.531113115113J. Ruzicka2.3881571152WAug 22 · 17:00O. Kolisnyk1.85711391A. Barton1.8011511113
R. Urbaniec10
WSep 11 · 07:00R. Urbaniec2.501111113J. Ruzicka1.508990WSep 10 · 17:30R. Urbaniec1.657111111113A. Brazda2.1011136462WSep 10 · 16:30R. Urbaniec1.73127711113O. Svacha2.00101111672WSep 10 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.40141111113A. Brazda2.75167581LSep 10 · 14:00V. Nohejl1.57651211113R. Urbaniec2.25111110942WSep 10 · 02:59R. Urbaniec1.501111113S. Kasnik2.507790LSep 10 · 02:00R. Urbaniec2.38691191M. Wagner1.5311116113WSep 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec1.43121111113S. Kasnik2.60149551LSep 10 · 24:00J. Ruzicka1.50411416113R. Urbaniec2.50115111482LAug 29 · 11:30R. Urbaniec2.635880A. Barton1.441111113
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