TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110114
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomas Janata
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210119––––
Jiri Plachy
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Janata to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Janata above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 61 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Janata at 64.1%
61 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Janata 57–21 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 21 of their 78 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Janata beat Plachy 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:23What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Janata
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-21 in 78
Janata
Correct
gap of 36 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Janata 1548 vs Plachy 1412
Janata
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Janata 80% vs Plachy 20%
Janata
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Janata 50% vs Plachy 20%
Janata
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Janata +4 · Plachy -2
Janata
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Janata) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJanata 1.50 / Plachy 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Janata)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110114
Janata1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 110 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it74% 77 of 104
Plachy2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 174 of 417
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJanata7wins
AwayPlachy3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJanata leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJanata75%3 of 4
AwayPlachy33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Janata4Plachy6n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S2Janata7Plachy3n = 10Janata took 7 of 10
S3Janata7Plachy3n = 10Janata took 7 of 10
S4Janata6Plachy4n = 10Janata took 6 of 10
S5Janata2Plachy2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJanataPlachyJ − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.339.3+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJanataPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 824 vs 740 / 160352.4%46.2%432 / 824 vs 740 / 1603Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanataJanata 1.50/Plachy 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Janata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Janata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 19:30T. Janata—121012113J. Plachy—10121031
WAug 13 · 17:29T. Janata—71111113J. Plachy—119681
LAug 13 · 16:30T. Janata—81151252J. Plachy—1191110113
WAug 13 · 13:30T. Janata—11111010113J. Plachy—79121282
LAug 13 · 10:30T. Janata—813251J. Plachy—111111113
WAug 9 · 22:00T. Janata—111012113J. Plachy—6121021
WAug 7 · 18:30T. Janata—911119113J. Plachy—11681182
WFeb 1 · 01:00T. Janata—111112113J. Plachy—1371031
WJan 30 · 19:30T. Janata—101111113J. Plachy—122881
LJan 30 · 18:30T. Janata—11811942J. Plachy—611411113
T. Janata10
WSep 11 · 23:00Y. Holovatiuk3.501081121T. Janata1.2812119113WSep 11 · 21:28J. Prokupek2.0081131152T. Janata1.73119116113WSep 11 · 20:00T. Janata1.50811611143T. Dousa2.50119115122WSep 11 · 19:30J. Plachy2.5010121031T. Janata1.50121012113LSep 11 · 18:00T. Janata1.575740J. Prokupek2.251111113LSep 7 · 21:00T. Janata1.536111161L. Krticka2.3811713113LSep 7 · 20:00T. Janata1.40591351M. Vedmoch2.75111111113LSep 7 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.3331111113T. Janata3.25117851WSep 7 · 18:00T. Janata1.44111194113L. Krticka2.6398111182LSep 6 · 20:59T. Janata2.0011750R. Krejci1.731311113
J. Plachy10
LSep 11 · 22:30T. Dousa1.831112113J. Plachy1.8371090LSep 11 · 20:58T. Dousa2.1091112113J. Plachy1.671191081WSep 11 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.911112951J. Plachy1.8091411113LSep 11 · 19:30J. Plachy2.5010121031T. Janata1.50121012113LSep 11 · 18:30T. Dousa1.8381111113J. Plachy1.83118981LSep 8 · 20:59J. Dedek2.2011115133J. Plachy1.614911111LSep 8 · 20:30J. Dedek2.00115116113J. Plachy1.7351171122LSep 8 · 19:30J. Plachy1.8091110101J. Prokupek1.9111712123LSep 8 · 18:30T. Dousa1.8312212113J. Plachy1.8310111051WSep 8 · 17:30J. Plachy2.101111113J. Trefny1.678750
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