TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13105305
Played Sep 9Finished
Jakub Komorowicz
Home
1.74
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111911131311811
Michal Szostak
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Szostak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
106 points played in total.
Set by set
81111911131311811
H2H Jakub Komorowicz 14–13 Michal Szostak Michal Szostak has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:03What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Komorowicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-13 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komorowicz 1357 vs Szostak 1393
Szostak
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komorowicz 60% vs Szostak 40%
Komorowicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komorowicz 50% vs Szostak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Komorowicz +2 · Szostak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Komorowicz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostak form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomorowicz 1.74 / Szostak 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Komorowicz)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13105305
Komorowicz1.74
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 60 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Szostak1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 29 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back35% 13 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomorowicz5wins
AwaySzostak5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomorowicz71.4%5 of 7
AwaySzostak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komorowicz7Szostak3n = 10Komorowicz took 7 of 10
S2Komorowicz4Szostak6n = 10Szostak took 6 of 10
S3Komorowicz1Szostak9n = 10Szostak took 9 of 10
S4Komorowicz5Szostak3n = 8Komorowicz took 5 of 8
S5Komorowicz3Szostak2n = 5Komorowicz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomorowiczSzostakK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.641.5−1.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomorowiczSzostakBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 492 vs 124 / 25245.5%49.2%224 / 492 vs 124 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KomorowiczKomorowicz 1.74/Szostak 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Komorowicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szostak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 17:30J. Komorowicz—117111272M. Szostak—5111310113
LAug 22 · 10:05J. Komorowicz—101171542M. Szostak—1281113113
LAug 18 · 21:30J. Komorowicz—1175101M. Szostak—51111123
WAug 18 · 20:30J. Komorowicz—1210811113M. Szostak—101211482
WJun 23 · 20:30J. Komorowicz—111110113M. Szostak—961291
LJun 15 · 21:30J. Komorowicz—7890M. Szostak—1111113
WJun 15 · 17:30J. Komorowicz—114115113M. Szostak—91191142
LJun 9 · 20:30J. Komorowicz—9370M. Szostak—1111113
WJun 6 · 11:05J. Komorowicz—111198113M. Szostak—79111192
WJun 3 · 20:40J. Komorowicz—11115113M. Szostak—681181
J. Komorowicz10
WSep 9 · 17:00J. Komorowicz1.66118117113P. Kedzierski2.0591191182WSep 9 · 14:00J. Komorowicz2.90111111133K. Patryk1.328713111LSep 8 · 21:30J. Komorowicz—65130K. Kos—1111153LSep 8 · 20:30W. Arkadiusz1.4011911113J. Komorowicz2.60811751WSep 8 · 19:30K. Patryk1.301211991J. Komorowicz3.1014611113LSep 8 · 18:00P. Kedzierski2.32111110113J. Komorowicz1.49991271LSep 8 · 15:30J. Caban1.49711411113J. Komorowicz2.3211011572WSep 8 · 14:00K. Kos1.60611681J. Komorowicz2.1011711113WSep 2 · 21:40P. Kamil1.6311811892J. Komorowicz2.15811811113LSep 2 · 20:00P. Kamil1.78111110113J. Komorowicz1.91671291
M. Szostak10
LSep 9 · 16:30K. Kos1.6516611113M. Szostak2.101411851WSep 9 · 16:00M. Szostak1.49111679113P. Kedzierski2.34614111142LAug 30 · 14:05W. Arkadiusz1.661110138113M. Szostak2.10712111192WAug 30 · 12:05K. Patryk1.6014781192M. Szostak2.201211119113LAug 30 · 11:05M. Szostak1.9598130W. Arkadiusz1.751111153LAug 30 · 10:05M. Szostak2.10115691L. Buklat1.6031111113WAug 30 · 08:35M. Szostak2.0011121111113P. Kamil1.7213146982WAug 30 · 06:35M. Szostak2.1081112113K. Kos1.651171061WAug 25 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.75111081192M. Szostak1.95912116113LAug 25 · 20:30M. Szostak1.9761511101W. Arkadiusz1.6911179123
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