TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13104700
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Szostak
Home
1.49
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161614711911114
Piotr Kedzierski
Away
2.34
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Kedzierski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
1161614711911114
H2H Michal Szostak 10–9 Piotr Kedzierski Piotr Kedzierski has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:47What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.49 (61%)
Szostak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostak 1397 vs Kedzierski 1301
Szostak
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostak 40% vs Kedzierski 60%
Kedzierski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostak 50% vs Kedzierski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostak -1 · Kedzierski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Szostak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kedzierski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostak 1.49 / Kedzierski 2.34
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Szostak)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13104700
Szostak1.49
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 20 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Kedzierski2.34
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 36 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostak5wins
AwayKedzierski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostak100%5 of 5
AwayKedzierski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostak5Kedzierski5n = 10split evenly
S2Szostak4Kedzierski6n = 10Kedzierski took 6 of 10
S3Szostak3Kedzierski7n = 10Kedzierski took 7 of 10
S4Szostak4Kedzierski3n = 7Szostak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostakKedzierskiS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.235.2+1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostakKedzierskiBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 256 vs 168 / 44050%38.2%128 / 256 vs 168 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostakSzostak 1.49/Kedzierski 2.34
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Szostak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szostak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 11:05M. Szostak—11611113P. Kedzierski—811861
WAug 18 · 16:30M. Szostak—1111113P. Kedzierski—4430
WJun 23 · 21:40M. Szostak—1191111113P. Kedzierski—91113872
LJun 23 · 16:00M. Szostak—811961P. Kedzierski—11611113
LMay 19 · 16:00M. Szostak—11960P. Kedzierski—1311113
WMar 18 · 16:00M. Szostak—11119113P. Kedzierski—591151
LMar 16 · 23:10M. Szostak—81130P. Kedzierski—1113113
LMar 16 · 16:30M. Szostak—1111661P. Kedzierski—13511113
LMar 11 · 15:30M. Szostak—651181P. Kedzierski—11114113
WJan 10 · 14:45M. Szostak—1151111113P. Kedzierski—41113972
M. Szostak10
LSep 9 · 16:30K. Kos1.6516611113M. Szostak2.101411851LAug 30 · 14:05W. Arkadiusz1.661110138113M. Szostak2.10712111192WAug 30 · 12:05K. Patryk1.6014781192M. Szostak2.201211119113LAug 30 · 11:05M. Szostak1.9598130W. Arkadiusz1.751111153LAug 30 · 10:05M. Szostak2.10115691L. Buklat1.6031111113WAug 30 · 08:35M. Szostak2.0011121111113P. Kamil1.7213146982WAug 30 · 06:35M. Szostak2.1081112113K. Kos1.651171061WAug 25 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.75111081192M. Szostak1.95912116113LAug 25 · 20:30M. Szostak1.9761511101W. Arkadiusz1.6911179123LAug 25 · 18:30P. Odelski1.807111011113M. Szostak1.8611512942
P. Kedzierski10
LSep 9 · 15:30P. Kedzierski2.755420K. Patryk1.361111113WSep 8 · 22:00P. Kedzierski2.651114113J. Caban1.4251280LSep 8 · 20:00K. Kos1.3211911113P. Kedzierski2.90911881WSep 8 · 19:00P. Kedzierski2.80119119123J. Caban1.35811911102WSep 8 · 18:00P. Kedzierski2.32111110113J. Komorowicz1.49991271LSep 8 · 16:30P. Kedzierski3.40126111232W. Arkadiusz1.241011814113LSep 8 · 14:30P. Kedzierski2.953490K. Patryk1.311111113LAug 26 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.269111011113P. Kedzierski3.5011912852WAug 26 · 20:00K. Patryk1.23411981P. Kedzierski3.5011511113LAug 26 · 19:00P. Kedzierski2.608790L. Buklat1.411111113
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