TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13099353
Played Sep 8Finished
Piotr Kedzierski
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12106111181214311
Wiekiera Arkadiusz
Away
1.24
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeWiekiera Arkadiusz to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
12106111181214311
H2H Piotr Kedzierski 15–40 Wiekiera Arkadiusz Piotr Kedzierski has won 15 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.24 (73%)
Arkadiusz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-40 in 55
Arkadiusz
Correct
gap of 25 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kedzierski 1275 vs Arkadiusz 1432
Arkadiusz
Correct
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kedzierski 20% vs Arkadiusz 60%
Arkadiusz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kedzierski 30% vs Arkadiusz 50%
Arkadiusz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kedzierski -2 · Arkadiusz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Arkadiusz) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Arkadiusz form (60%) is below what odds imply (81%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKedzierski 3.40 / Arkadiusz 1.24
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Arkadiusz)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13099353
Kedzierski3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 34 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Arkadiusz1.24
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 127 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it73% 90 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKedzierski3wins
AwayArkadiusz7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderArkadiusz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKedzierski66.7%2 of 3
AwayArkadiusz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kedzierski3Arkadiusz7n = 10Arkadiusz took 7 of 10
S2Kedzierski4Arkadiusz6n = 10Arkadiusz took 6 of 10
S3Kedzierski3Arkadiusz7n = 10Arkadiusz took 7 of 10
S4Kedzierski2Arkadiusz4n = 6Arkadiusz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKedzierskiArkadiuszK − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.339.8−6.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKedzierskiArkadiuszBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 434 vs 556 / 99138%56.1%165 / 434 vs 556 / 991Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.441.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ArkadiuszKedzierski 3.40/Arkadiusz 1.24
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.7%
Arkadiusz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Arkadiusz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 14:30P. Kedzierski—8990W. Arkadiusz—1111113
LAug 22 · 13:45P. Kedzierski—10980W. Arkadiusz—1211113
WAug 22 · 13:05P. Kedzierski—61114133W. Arkadiusz—11812111
LAug 14 · 15:30P. Kedzierski—511561W. Arkadiusz—11911113
LAug 4 · 16:30P. Kedzierski—4790W. Arkadiusz—1111113
WJul 21 · 19:00P. Kedzierski—11116113W. Arkadiusz—961181
WJul 7 · 20:30P. Kedzierski—1181110113W. Arkadiusz—81191292
LJun 30 · 16:30P. Kedzierski—411114102W. Arkadiusz—119811123
LJun 10 · 21:40P. Kedzierski—117461W. Arkadiusz—91111113
LJun 10 · 21:00P. Kedzierski—138100W. Arkadiusz—1511123
P. Kedzierski10
LSep 8 · 14:30P. Kedzierski2.953490K. Patryk1.311111113LAug 26 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.269111011113P. Kedzierski3.5011912852WAug 26 · 20:00K. Patryk1.23411981P. Kedzierski3.5011511113LAug 26 · 19:00P. Kedzierski2.608790L. Buklat1.411111113LAug 26 · 18:00P. Kedzierski2.451171031J. Komorowicz1.5041112113WAug 26 · 16:30P. Kedzierski2.7511512113P. Odelski1.369111091LAug 26 · 14:30P. Kedzierski3.658990W. Arkadiusz1.211111113LAug 22 · 13:45P. Kedzierski—10980W. Arkadiusz—1211113WAug 22 · 13:05P. Kedzierski2.7561114133W. Arkadiusz1.3611812111LAug 22 · 11:05M. Szostak1.5411611113P. Kedzierski2.22811861
W. Arkadiusz10
LSep 8 · 17:30W. Arkadiusz1.951171381K. Patryk1.7691115113WSep 8 · 16:00W. Arkadiusz1.7511311113J. Caban1.95811981LSep 7 · 22:30P. Odelski1.511111113W. Arkadiusz2.406950LSep 7 · 20:30P. Odelski1.5511911113W. Arkadiusz2.30911591WSep 7 · 19:30K. Kos1.7079110W. Arkadiusz1.951111133WSep 7 · 18:00W. Dariusz—912761W. Arkadiusz—111011113WAug 26 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.269111011113P. Kedzierski3.5011912852WAug 26 · 14:30P. Kedzierski3.658990W. Arkadiusz1.211111113WAug 22 · 13:45P. Kedzierski—10980W. Arkadiusz—1211113LAug 22 · 13:05P. Kedzierski2.7561114133W. Arkadiusz1.3611812111
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