TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12475229
Played Aug 22Finished
Piotr Kedzierski
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
61111814121311––
Wiekiera Arkadiusz
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:35 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeWiekiera Arkadiusz to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
61111814121311––
H2H Piotr Kedzierski 14–38 Wiekiera Arkadiusz Piotr Kedzierski has won 14 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (67%)
Arkadiusz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-38 in 52
Arkadiusz
Wrong
gap of 24 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kedzierski 1275 vs Arkadiusz 1430
Arkadiusz
Wrong
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kedzierski 40% vs Arkadiusz 20%
Kedzierski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kedzierski 40% vs Arkadiusz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kedzierski -2 · Arkadiusz -3
Arkadiusz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Arkadiusz) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Arkadiusz form (20%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKedzierski 2.75 / Arkadiusz 1.36
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Arkadiusz)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12475229
Kedzierski2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 47 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Arkadiusz1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 134 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it93% 54 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it71% 93 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKedzierski4wins
AwayArkadiusz6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderArkadiusz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKedzierski75%3 of 4
AwayArkadiusz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kedzierski4Arkadiusz6n = 10Arkadiusz took 6 of 10
S2Kedzierski4Arkadiusz6n = 10Arkadiusz took 6 of 10
S3Kedzierski4Arkadiusz6n = 10Arkadiusz took 6 of 10
S4Kedzierski2Arkadiusz6n = 8Arkadiusz took 6 of 8
S5Kedzierski3Arkadiusz1n = 4Kedzierski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKedzierskiArkadiuszK − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.442.7−6.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKedzierskiArkadiuszBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 425 vs 550 / 98138.1%56.1%162 / 425 vs 550 / 981Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.641.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ArkadiuszKedzierski 2.75/Arkadiusz 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.9%
Arkadiusz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kedzierski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 15:30P. Kedzierski—511561W. Arkadiusz—11911113
LAug 4 · 16:30P. Kedzierski—4790W. Arkadiusz—1111113
WJul 21 · 19:00P. Kedzierski—11116113W. Arkadiusz—961181
WJul 7 · 20:30P. Kedzierski—1181110113W. Arkadiusz—81191292
LJun 30 · 16:30P. Kedzierski—411114102W. Arkadiusz—119811123
LJun 10 · 21:40P. Kedzierski—117461W. Arkadiusz—91111113
LJun 10 · 21:00P. Kedzierski—138100W. Arkadiusz—1511123
WMay 23 · 14:05P. Kedzierski—116118113W. Arkadiusz—91161182
LMay 23 · 12:35P. Kedzierski—471181W. Arkadiusz—11118113
WMay 22 · 21:00P. Kedzierski—6111211113W. Arkadiusz—11914992
P. Kedzierski10
LAug 26 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.269111011113P. Kedzierski3.5011912852WAug 26 · 20:00K. Patryk1.23411981P. Kedzierski3.5011511113LAug 26 · 19:00P. Kedzierski2.608790L. Buklat1.411111113LAug 26 · 18:00P. Kedzierski2.451171031J. Komorowicz1.5041112113WAug 26 · 16:30P. Kedzierski2.7511512113P. Odelski1.369111091LAug 26 · 14:30P. Kedzierski3.658990W. Arkadiusz1.211111113LAug 22 · 13:45P. Kedzierski—10980W. Arkadiusz—1211113LAug 22 · 11:05M. Szostak1.5411611113P. Kedzierski2.22811861LAug 22 · 09:05K. Patryk1.301113113P. Kedzierski3.0031180WAug 22 · 08:05K. Kos1.2711891182P. Kedzierski3.20511117113
W. Arkadiusz10
WSep 7 · 18:00W. Dariusz—912761W. Arkadiusz—111011113WSep 7 · 15:30L. Buklat1.8369100W. Arkadiusz1.831111123LSep 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.601091711113W. Arkadiusz2.10121115892LSep 2 · 22:40P. Odelski1.591111113W. Arkadiusz2.138890LSep 2 · 20:30P. Odelski1.6414711113W. Arkadiusz2.031211781WSep 2 · 19:30K. Patryk1.5781170W. Arkadiusz2.171113113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Komorowicz2.5512811982W. Arkadiusz1.421011911113WAug 26 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.269111011113P. Kedzierski3.5011912852WAug 26 · 14:30P. Kedzierski3.658990W. Arkadiusz1.211111113WAug 22 · 13:45P. Kedzierski—10980W. Arkadiusz—1211113
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