TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13096816
Played Sep 8Finished
Wiekiera Arkadiusz
Home
1.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118311119118––
Jakub Caban
Away
1.95
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Caban to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
118311119118––
H2H Wiekiera Arkadiusz 37–34 Jakub Caban Jakub Caban has won 34 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Arkadiusz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-34 in 71
Arkadiusz
Correct
gap of 3 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Arkadiusz 1419 vs Caban 1437
Caban
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Arkadiusz 60% vs Caban 80%
Caban
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Arkadiusz 50% vs Caban 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Arkadiusz -2 · Caban +3
Caban
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Arkadiusz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Caban form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsArkadiusz 1.75 / Caban 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Arkadiusz)+1.3pp
TT Cup · #13096816
Arkadiusz1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 127 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it73% 90 of 123
Caban1.95
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 10 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeArkadiusz5wins
AwayCaban5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeArkadiuszn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCaban62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Arkadiusz2Caban8n = 10Caban took 8 of 10
S2Arkadiusz5Caban5n = 10split evenly
S3Arkadiusz6Caban4n = 10Arkadiusz took 6 of 10
S4Arkadiusz7Caban2n = 9Arkadiusz took 7 of 9
S5Arkadiusz2Caban3n = 5Caban took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricArkadiuszCabanA − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match45.345.4−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricArkadiuszCabanBasisWin rate · lifetime555 / 990 vs 225 / 40556.1%55.6%555 / 990 vs 225 / 405Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match41.240.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ArkadiuszArkadiusz 1.75/Caban 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Arkadiusz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Arkadiusz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 19:30W. Arkadiusz—511914193J. Caban—1171112172
WJul 13 · 16:00W. Arkadiusz—111111113J. Caban—913891
LJul 6 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz—1011991J. Caban—12811113
WJul 6 · 21:00W. Arkadiusz—91111113J. Caban—118771
WJun 30 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz—5121110113J. Caban—111091282
LJun 30 · 19:00W. Arkadiusz—115121172J. Caban—1311108113
WJun 9 · 19:00W. Arkadiusz—12811143J. Caban—10114121
LJun 1 · 20:30W. Arkadiusz—9101212122J. Caban—11121010143
LMay 25 · 16:30W. Arkadiusz—9980J. Caban—1111113
LMay 16 · 10:05W. Arkadiusz—71191572J. Caban—1161113113
W. Arkadiusz10
LSep 8 · 17:30W. Arkadiusz1.951171381K. Patryk1.7691115113WSep 8 · 16:30P. Kedzierski3.40126111232W. Arkadiusz1.241011814113LSep 7 · 22:30P. Odelski1.511111113W. Arkadiusz2.406950LSep 7 · 20:30P. Odelski1.5511911113W. Arkadiusz2.30911591WSep 7 · 19:30K. Kos1.7079110W. Arkadiusz1.951111133WSep 7 · 18:00W. Dariusz—912761W. Arkadiusz—111011113WSep 7 · 15:30L. Buklat1.8369100W. Arkadiusz1.831111123LSep 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.601091711113W. Arkadiusz2.10121115892LSep 2 · 22:40P. Odelski1.591111113W. Arkadiusz2.138890LSep 2 · 20:30P. Odelski1.6414711113W. Arkadiusz2.031211781
J. Caban10
WSep 8 · 17:00K. Kos1.7311911772J. Caban1.98711811113WSep 8 · 15:30J. Caban1.49711411113J. Komorowicz2.3211011572WAug 14 · 22:10J. Caban—1111143P. Kedzierski—79120WAug 14 · 21:00P. Kedzierski2.401171151J. Caban1.5113117113LAug 14 · 19:30J. Caban1.471171112172W. Arkadiusz2.39511914193WAug 14 · 17:30F. Baranski2.2211101081J. Caban1.5491212113WAug 14 · 15:00P. Kamil1.62661181J. Caban2.1511119113LAug 14 · 14:30J. Komorowicz2.097111212133J. Caban1.611191014112WJul 13 · 21:40J. Caban—1510117113J. Komorowicz—131281192LJul 13 · 20:30J. Caban—57111652P. Kamil—1111514113
Upcoming Matches
W. Arkadiusz
J. Caban
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.