TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12436235
Played Aug 14Finished
Piotr Kedzierski
Home
2.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113711117511––
Jakub Caban
Away
1.51
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Caban to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1113711117511––
H2H Piotr Kedzierski 10–18 Jakub Caban Piotr Kedzierski has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.51 (61%)
Caban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-18 in 28
Caban
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kedzierski 1238 vs Caban 1415
Caban
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kedzierski 20% vs Caban 60%
Caban
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kedzierski 30% vs Caban 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kedzierski -2 · Caban -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Caban)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kedzierski form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKedzierski 2.40 / Caban 1.51
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Caban)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12436235
Kedzierski2.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 42 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back14% 10 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Caban1.51
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 51 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it68% 38 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKedzierski3wins
AwayCaban7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCaban leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKedzierski66.7%2 of 3
AwayCaban85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kedzierski3Caban7n = 10Caban took 7 of 10
S2Kedzierski5Caban5n = 10split evenly
S3Kedzierski3Caban7n = 10Caban took 7 of 10
S4Kedzierski2Caban3n = 5Caban took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKedzierskiCabanK − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.237.3−6.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKedzierskiCabanBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 407 vs 246 / 44338.1%55.5%155 / 407 vs 246 / 443Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CabanKedzierski 2.40/Caban 1.51
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Caban · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Caban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 30 · 16:00P. Kedzierski—911551J. Caban—11911113
LJun 24 · 22:30P. Kedzierski—761181J. Caban—11119113
LJun 24 · 16:30P. Kedzierski—1110481J. Caban—91211113
LMay 12 · 16:00P. Kedzierski—7640J. Caban—1111113
LApr 27 · 18:00P. Kedzierski—11780J. Caban—1311113
LMar 16 · 21:30P. Kedzierski—21171192J. Caban—119119113
WMar 10 · 17:00P. Kedzierski—1112113J. Caban—71080
WMar 9 · 21:30P. Kedzierski—1211113J. Caban—10860
LMar 5 · 21:30P. Kedzierski—6680J. Caban—1111113
WFeb 16 · 20:00P. Kedzierski—711611113J. Caban—11911592
P. Kedzierski10
LAug 26 · 22:10W. Arkadiusz1.269111011113P. Kedzierski3.5011912852WAug 26 · 20:00K. Patryk1.23411981P. Kedzierski3.5011511113LAug 26 · 19:00P. Kedzierski2.608790L. Buklat1.411111113LAug 26 · 18:00P. Kedzierski2.451171031J. Komorowicz1.5041112113WAug 26 · 16:30P. Kedzierski2.7511512113P. Odelski1.369111091LAug 26 · 14:30P. Kedzierski3.658990W. Arkadiusz1.211111113LAug 22 · 13:45P. Kedzierski—10980W. Arkadiusz—1211113WAug 22 · 13:05P. Kedzierski2.7561114133W. Arkadiusz1.3611812111LAug 22 · 11:05M. Szostak1.5411611113P. Kedzierski2.22811861LAug 22 · 09:05K. Patryk1.301113113P. Kedzierski3.0031180
J. Caban10
WAug 14 · 22:10J. Caban—1111143P. Kedzierski—79120LAug 14 · 19:30J. Caban1.471171112172W. Arkadiusz2.39511914193WAug 14 · 17:30F. Baranski2.2211101081J. Caban1.5491212113WAug 14 · 15:00P. Kamil1.62661181J. Caban2.1511119113LAug 14 · 14:30J. Komorowicz2.097111212133J. Caban1.611191014112WJul 13 · 21:40J. Caban—1510117113J. Komorowicz—131281192LJul 13 · 20:30J. Caban—57111652P. Kamil—1111514113LJul 13 · 18:30K. Patryk1.739111011113J. Caban1.9811912972WJul 13 · 17:30J. Caban1.63141198113J. Komorowicz2.06124111172LJul 13 · 16:30L. Buklat1.5911911113J. Caban2.12911481
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