TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100508
Played Sep 9Finished
Maksym Hubenko
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6116111113––––
Serhii Chuhai
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Chuhai to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Hubenko above · Serhii Chuhai below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 58 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Serhii Chuhai at 67.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Hubenko 33–104 Serhii Chuhai Maksym Hubenko has won 33 of their 137 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Chuhai
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-104 in 137
Chuhai
Correct
gap of 71 in 137, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hubenko 1657 vs Chuhai 1764
Chuhai
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hubenko 60% vs Chuhai 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hubenko 70% vs Chuhai 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hubenko -2 · Chuhai +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Chuhai) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chuhai form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHubenko 2.75 / Chuhai 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Chuhai)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13100508
Hubenko2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog26% won 45 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 62
Chuhai1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 184 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it94% 102 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it86% 137 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHubenko2wins
AwayChuhai8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChuhai leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHubenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayChuhai85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hubenko3Chuhai7n = 10Chuhai took 7 of 10
S2Hubenko4Chuhai6n = 10Chuhai took 6 of 10
S3Hubenko1Chuhai9n = 10Chuhai took 9 of 10
S4Hubenko2Chuhai4n = 6Chuhai took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHubenkoChuhaiH − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.839.3−8.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHubenkoChuhaiBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 1027 vs 490 / 96453.2%50.8%546 / 1027 vs 490 / 964Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChuhaiHubenko 2.75/Chuhai 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Chuhai · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chuhai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 07:00M. Hubenko—66110S. Chuhai—1111133
WAug 31 · 11:00M. Hubenko—11711113S. Chuhai—711651
LAug 28 · 06:30M. Hubenko—6670S. Chuhai—1111113
LAug 17 · 05:00M. Hubenko—1011541S. Chuhai—12811113
LAug 7 · 05:00M. Hubenko—911541S. Chuhai—11911113
LJul 31 · 10:00M. Hubenko—11280S. Chuhai—1311113
LJul 30 · 12:00M. Hubenko—11113492S. Chuhai—791111113
WJul 27 · 10:00M. Hubenko—817911113S. Chuhai—111511892
LJul 24 · 08:30M. Hubenko—116351S. Chuhai—71111113
LJul 17 · 10:00M. Hubenko—10980S. Chuhai—1211113
M. Hubenko10
LSep 9 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.577640O. Syksa2.251111113LSep 6 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov2.00812114133M. Hubenko1.731110911112WSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.3011311113O. Lyman3.40411791WSep 6 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.531211113D. Prylepa2.3810570WSep 6 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.5711911133O. Syksa2.256115111LSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.28138611133D. Kuzmenko3.501111119112WSep 5 · 15:00A. Vasylets2.38651171M. Hubenko1.5311118103WSep 5 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov2.0010960M. Hubenko1.731211113
S. Chuhai10
WSep 9 · 05:30S. Chuhai1.501111113A. Vasylets2.505740LSep 8 · 17:11I. Fedoryshyn1.131111133S. Chuhai5.5067110LSep 8 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011911113S. Chuhai2.75611781WSep 8 · 15:00S. Chuhai2.5014116113I. Fedoryshyn1.501211151WSep 8 · 13:30S. Chuhai2.5011816113A. Lushchyk1.507111461LSep 8 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.20691181A. Kasyanov1.6111117113WSep 7 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko6.007580S. Chuhai1.111111113WSep 7 · 10:00S. Maliuk5.507480S. Chuhai1.131111113WSep 7 · 08:30O. Syksa4.00471181S. Chuhai1.2211116113WSep 7 · 06:30O. Kurylenko4.335580S. Chuhai1.201111113
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