TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094588
Played Sep 8Finished
Maksym Baday
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116911117118––
Serhii Chuhai
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:36 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Serhii Chuhai below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Maksym Baday at 66.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 140–64 Serhii Chuhai Serhii Chuhai has won 64 of their 204 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:36What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Baday
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
140-64 in 204
Baday
Correct
gap of 76 in 204, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1926 vs Chuhai 1762
Baday
Correct
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 80% vs Chuhai 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 70% vs Chuhai 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday +1 · Chuhai +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Baday) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chuhai form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 1.40 / Chuhai 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Baday)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094588
Baday1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 242 of 324
Up 2–0, closes it96% 132 of 137
Up 1–0, closes it86% 178 of 208
Chuhai2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 65 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday7wins
AwayChuhai3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday83.3%5 of 6
AwayChuhai50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday6Chuhai4n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S2Baday5Chuhai5n = 10split evenly
S3Baday8Chuhai2n = 10Baday took 8 of 10
S4Baday6Chuhai2n = 8Baday took 6 of 8
S5Baday2Chuhai3n = 5Chuhai took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayChuhaiB − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.239.9+5.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayChuhaiBasisWin rate · lifetime557 / 738 vs 488 / 96075.5%50.8%557 / 738 vs 488 / 960Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadayBaday 1.40/Chuhai 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baday won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 16:30M. Baday—1111113S. Chuhai—6880
WJul 30 · 16:30M. Baday—91111113S. Chuhai—112271
WJul 28 · 16:30M. Baday—121114133S. Chuhai—10616111
LJul 23 · 16:30M. Baday—14111111102S. Chuhai—161379123
LJul 21 · 17:34M. Baday—98111182S. Chuhai—111178113
WJul 21 · 16:30M. Baday—118115113S. Chuhai—81171172
LJul 16 · 16:30M. Baday—113111192S. Chuhai—911613113
WJul 14 · 17:33M. Baday—1211113S. Chuhai—10980
WJul 14 · 16:30M. Baday—11811123S. Chuhai—6119101
WJul 7 · 14:00M. Baday—1411911113S. Chuhai—16711882
M. Baday10
LSep 8 · 17:34A. Kasyanov3.25148811113M. Baday1.33121111262WSep 8 · 15:30M. Baday1.201111113A. Lushchyk4.334680LSep 8 · 14:00M. Baday1.807340I. Fedoryshyn1.911111113WSep 8 · 13:00M. Baday1.3011131115113A. Kasyanov3.4061571762WSep 1 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn2.006111241M. Baday1.7311814113WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday1.361111113S. Chuhai3.009890WSep 1 · 15:30M. Baday1.141311113A. Lushchyk5.0011570LSep 1 · 14:00M. Baday1.80411101182I. Fedoryshyn1.91115123113LSep 1 · 13:00M. Baday1.30611541A. Kasyanov3.4011811113WAug 28 · 17:30A. Kasyanov3.50115811102M. Baday1.28911117123
S. Chuhai10
LSep 8 · 17:11I. Fedoryshyn1.131111133S. Chuhai5.5067110WSep 8 · 15:00S. Chuhai2.5014116113I. Fedoryshyn1.501211151WSep 8 · 13:30S. Chuhai2.5011816113A. Lushchyk1.507111461LSep 8 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.20691181A. Kasyanov1.6111117113WSep 7 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko6.007580S. Chuhai1.111111113WSep 7 · 10:00S. Maliuk5.507480S. Chuhai1.131111113WSep 7 · 08:30O. Syksa4.00471181S. Chuhai1.2211116113WSep 7 · 06:30O. Kurylenko4.335580S. Chuhai1.201111113WSep 7 · 04:30D. Prylepa3.00119471S. Chuhai1.3691111113LSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday1.361111113S. Chuhai3.009890
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