TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13084512
Played Sep 5Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12109111214711––
Jakub Michalczyk
Away
1.86
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 69.0% is still 69.0%
Graded at full timeBartosz Sulkowski to win
69.0%
69.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
12109111214711––
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 4–1 Jakub Michalczyk Jakub Michalczyk has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sulkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Sulkowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1453 vs Michalczyk 1373
Sulkowski
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 80% vs Michalczyk 20%
Sulkowski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 70% vs Michalczyk 40%
Sulkowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski +1 · Michalczyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.80 / Michalczyk 1.86
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulkowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13084512
Sulkowski1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 208 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it98% 93 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it82% 151 of 184
Michalczyk1.86
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 25 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSulkowski4wins
AwayMichalczyk1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSulkowski leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski100%3 of 3
AwayMichalczykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski3Michalczyk2n = 5Sulkowski took 3 of 5
S2Sulkowski4Michalczyk1n = 5Sulkowski took 4 of 5
S3Sulkowski3Michalczyk2n = 5Sulkowski took 3 of 5
S4Sulkowski3Michalczyk0n = 3Sulkowski took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSulkowskiMichalczykS − MBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.436.2+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiMichalczykBasisWin rate · lifetime535 / 1211 vs 178 / 34044.2%52.4%535 / 1211 vs 178 / 340Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.540.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiSulkowski 1.80/Michalczyk 1.86
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Michalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 5 · 17:45B. Sulkowski—121111113J. Michalczyk—149981
WJun 3 · 09:00B. Sulkowski—1111113J. Michalczyk—4690
WMar 13 · 12:00B. Sulkowski—1111133J. Michalczyk—68110
WMar 3 · 14:30B. Sulkowski—119711123J. Michalczyk—611119102
LJan 24 · 16:50B. Sulkowski—31181482J. Michalczyk—1151112113
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 7 · 24:35A. Linek1.97136681B. Sulkowski1.71111111113WSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113LSep 6 · 22:15M. Trela1.941111117113B. Sulkowski1.7461341192LSep 6 · 21:30A. Myszewski2.3711711113B. Sulkowski1.51511451WSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Trela2.239711121B. Sulkowski1.5611112143WSep 6 · 18:10B. Sulkowski1.60111178113A. Myszewski2.1036111142LSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:50A. Wos1.421511113113B. Sulkowski2.6017761162WSep 5 · 23:20A. Lilien1.62711781B. Sulkowski2.1511711113
J. Michalczyk10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Michalczyk2.50411117113A. Wos1.4611681172WSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182LSep 6 · 16:15M. Trela2.604101111113J. Michalczyk1.4211127772WSep 6 · 15:25J. Michalczyk1.541111108113A. Myszewski2.2569121192WSep 6 · 14:35J. Michalczyk1.6311711113T. Pisarczyk2.10611871WSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330WSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281LSep 6 · 10:05J. Michalczyk1.9589111162I. Dabrowski1.74111174113LSep 6 · 09:00J. Michalczyk2.153860D. Wasilewski1.631111113
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