TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077718
Played Sep 5Finished
Patryk Jedrzejak
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111141161412––
Jakub Nowak
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:11 and never touched — 80.6% is still 80.6%
Graded at full timePatryk Jedrzejak to win
80.6%
80.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatryk Jedrzejak above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 73 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Patryk Jedrzejak at 80.6%
73 points played in total.
H2H Patryk Jedrzejak 17–6 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Jedrzejak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-6 in 23
Jedrzejak
Correct
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jedrzejak 1543 vs Nowak 1380
Jedrzejak
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jedrzejak 40% vs Nowak 60%
Nowak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jedrzejak 70% vs Nowak 50%
Jedrzejak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jedrzejak -2 · Nowak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Jedrzejak) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJedrzejak 1.25 / Nowak 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Jedrzejak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13077718
Jedrzejak1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 166 of 224
Up 2–0, closes it97% 96 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it87% 127 of 146
Nowak3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As underdog36% won 241 of 666
Down 0–1, comes back21% 85 of 403
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 234
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJedrzejak7wins
AwayNowak3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderJedrzejak leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJedrzejak100%6 of 6
AwayNowak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jedrzejak6Nowak4n = 10Jedrzejak took 6 of 10
S2Jedrzejak7Nowak3n = 10Jedrzejak took 7 of 10
S3Jedrzejak7Nowak3n = 10Jedrzejak took 7 of 10
S4Jedrzejak2Nowak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJedrzejakNowakJ − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.530.7+6.8per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJedrzejakNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 525 vs 673 / 173568%38.8%357 / 525 vs 673 / 1735Avg sets wonper match2.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejakJedrzejak 1.25/Nowak 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Jedrzejak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jedrzejak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WDec 6 · 17:20P. Jedrzejak—17127133J. Nowak—151011111
WDec 6 · 07:45P. Jedrzejak—1111113J. Nowak—4660
LNov 11 · 16:30P. Jedrzejak—1361191J. Nowak—15116113
WNov 11 · 10:30P. Jedrzejak—1111113J. Nowak—5990
LOct 4 · 11:55P. Jedrzejak—11111191J. Nowak—13137113
WOct 4 · 05:55P. Jedrzejak—1011711123J. Nowak—127115102
WMay 4 · 15:30P. Jedrzejak—1111113J. Nowak—8970
WMay 4 · 09:30P. Jedrzejak—1111113J. Nowak—6560
LApr 26 · 05:05P. Jedrzejak—81380J. Nowak—1115113
WApr 25 · 20:45P. Jedrzejak—1111113J. Nowak—4340
P. Jedrzejak10
LSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113WSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661LSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:50P. Jedrzejak1.573780J. Wieczerzak2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113WSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak2.009680P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970WSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940
J. Nowak10
WSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113LSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130LSep 7 · 04:55J. Nowak1.83111351292P. Przewlocki1.835111114113LSep 7 · 03:50J. Nowak2.2511173882J. Pruszkowski1.579151111113WSep 7 · 02:20J. Nowak2.251112113J. Pruszkowski1.5781070WSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123LSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971WSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113LSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571
Upcoming Matches
P. Jedrzejak
Nothing scheduled
J. Nowak
Sep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91R. Niemiec1.80—Sep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 7 · 18:45J. Nowak—M. Sikon——Sep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——Sep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——
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