TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077194
Played Sep 5Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119119––––
Jacek Wieczerzak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Wieczerzak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Jacek Wieczerzak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-9
Point 57 set 3, 10-9 — our read held Jacek Wieczerzak at 54.0%
57 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 4–4 Jacek Wieczerzak Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Wieczerzak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1388 vs Wieczerzak 1462
Wieczerzak
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 60% vs Wieczerzak 80%
Wieczerzak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 50% vs Wieczerzak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow +1 · Wieczerzak +3
Wieczerzak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wieczerzak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wieczerzak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.83 / Wieczerzak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wieczerzak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13077194
Sobkow1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Wieczerzak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSobkow4wins
AwayWieczerzak4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkow60%3 of 5
AwayWieczerzak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow5Wieczerzak3n = 8Sobkow took 5 of 8
S2Sobkow5Wieczerzak3n = 8Sobkow took 5 of 8
S3Sobkow2Wieczerzak6n = 8Wieczerzak took 6 of 8
S4Sobkow1Wieczerzak3n = 4Wieczerzak took 3 of 4
S5Sobkow2Wieczerzak1n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricSobkowWieczerzakS − WBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match34.037.4−3.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowWieczerzakBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 80 vs 135 / 25353.8%53.4%43 / 80 vs 135 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WieczerzakSobkow 1.83/Wieczerzak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wieczerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow—4810J. Wieczerzak—1111113
WSep 6 · 04:10Z. Sobkow—1111133J. Wieczerzak—83110
LSep 5 · 12:40Z. Sobkow—65110J. Wieczerzak—1111133
WSep 5 · 06:30Z. Sobkow—1111113J. Wieczerzak—7990
LAug 23 · 14:20Z. Sobkow—131122112J. Wieczerzak—1171111133
LAug 23 · 08:10Z. Sobkow—116351J. Wieczerzak—31111113
WAug 22 · 14:20Z. Sobkow—12111012113J. Wieczerzak—147121072
WAug 22 · 08:10Z. Sobkow—111188113J. Wieczerzak—77111192
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481
J. Wieczerzak10
WSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652LSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113LSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123WSep 6 · 09:50P. Jedrzejak1.573780J. Wieczerzak2.251111113WSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660LSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113LSep 6 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak2.009680P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133LSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113
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