TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077169
Played Sep 5Finished
Szymon Kolasa
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11620221191614––
Szymon Sporek
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeSzymon Kolasa to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Kolasa above · Szymon Sporek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 20-22
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 16-14
Point 109 set 4, 16-14 — our read held Szymon Kolasa at 75.1%
109 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Kolasa 15–5 Szymon Sporek Szymon Sporek has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kolasa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-5 in 20
Kolasa
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolasa 1846 vs Sporek 1703
Kolasa
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolasa 60% vs Sporek 20%
Kolasa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolasa 40% vs Sporek 60%
Sporek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolasa -2 · Sporek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kolasa) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolasa form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolasa 1.30 / Sporek 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Kolasa)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13077169
Kolasa1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite78% won 59 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Sporek3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolasa7wins
AwaySporek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolasa leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolasa100%6 of 6
AwaySporek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolasa6Sporek4n = 10Kolasa took 6 of 10
S2Kolasa7Sporek3n = 10Kolasa took 7 of 10
S3Kolasa7Sporek3n = 10Kolasa took 7 of 10
S4Kolasa5Sporek2n = 7Kolasa took 5 of 7
S5Kolasa2Sporek3n = 5Sporek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolasaSporekK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.839.1+2.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolasaSporekBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 512 vs 410 / 82154.7%49.9%280 / 512 vs 410 / 821Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolasaKolasa 1.30/Sporek 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Kolasa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolasa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 04:55S. Kolasa—41171182S. Sporek—116118113
WJul 15 · 13:00S. Kolasa—116188113S. Sporek—911161162
WJul 7 · 12:10S. Kolasa—119118113S. Sporek—91191172
WMar 29 · 14:30S. Kolasa—11124143S. Sporek—91011131
WMar 28 · 14:15S. Kolasa—1111113S. Sporek—8890
LMar 27 · 20:45S. Kolasa—7101111112S. Sporek—111276133
WJan 25 · 15:05S. Kolasa—121193S. Sporek—10650
LJan 23 · 19:15S. Kolasa—611101152S. Sporek—119125113
WOct 26 · 12:10S. Kolasa—81111113S. Sporek—118671
WOct 10 · 19:45S. Kolasa—1111113S. Sporek—8990
S. Kolasa10
WSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621WSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162WSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111
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